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HomeMy WebLinkAboutTIC 2017-08-15 Item 2C - Update - Comprehensive Plan: Transportation ElementCity of Tukwila Allan Ekberg, Mayor Public Works Department -Bob Giberson, Director INFORMATIONAL MEMORANDUM TO: Transportation and Infrastructure Committ ee FROM: Bob Giberson, Public Works Director/ BY: Robin Tischntak, City Engineer CC: Mayor Ekberg DATE: August 11, 2017 SUBJECT Tukwila Comprehensive Plan Transportation Element Update ISSUE Approve updates to the Transportation Element of Tukwila's Comprehensive Plan, BACKGROUND In 2010 the Public Works Department initiated an effort to update the Transportation Element (Chapter 13) of the Tukwila Comprehensive Plan. The effort included a traffic modeling effort that included projected household and employment growth throughout the City through the year 2030 This effort was in conjunction with an overall update to the Comprehensive Plan. Subsequently. the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) provided updated growth data that reflected the 2008-2009 recession. The updated growth data showed a small reduction for projected household growth and a significant reduction in projected employment (nearly 50%). DISCUSSION The review by PSRC identified discrepancies within Tukwila's Plan that indicated conflicting growth information between different chapters of the plan as well as a differing projected end year. The modeling effort projected through year 2030 while the remainder of the plan projected through year 2031. PSRC requested that the City run a revised model update that reflected the updated growth data as well as the 2031 horizon year. Attached are the proposed revisions for consideration and approval. FINANCIAL IMPACT There is no financial impact. RECOMMENDATION Council is being asked to accept the attached Transportation Element revisions and forward this item for discussion at the August 28, 2017 Committee of the Whole Meeting and subsequent September 5, 2017 Regular Council Meeting. Attachments Fehr & Peers Cover Memorandum Transportation Element in Track Changes Mode W:t1'W EhteROJECT5+,4- RW $ RS ProJeo's\Trans Element Comp Plan (9 B1t)4Of nloMlemo Transp Elam-antUpdateL111117.deox 33 FEHRk PEERS July 28, 2017 Laura Benjamin Associate Planner, Growth Management Planning Puget Sound Regional Council IbenjarninRpsrc.org 206-464-7134 Subject: City of Tukwila - Response to Comment an Assumed Land Use Growth in the Comprehensive Plan Review Dear Liz: The Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) reviewed the City of Tukwila's draft Comprehensive Plan Elements in 2013 and identified that the land use growth forecast by 2031 in the Transportation Element was higher than current (2016) PSRC growth assumptions. PSRC's review noted that the employment growth for the City of Tukwila is almost double the current forecast of 15,500 job growth between 2010 and 2031. The discrepancy in the land use growth allocation occurred because the City of Tukwila updated the Transportation Element between 2010 and 2012, in part because of a major planned development in the southern portion of the city that could potentially impact the long-term transportation needs for the City. At that time, the PSRC regional land use forecasts had not yet been adjusted to account for the magnitude of the 2008-2009 recession and resulting slowdown in the real estate market. The other elements of the Tukwila Comprehensive Plan were updated during the 2013-2015 period and incorporated the more recent (lower) growth forecasts from the PSRC. In response to this comment, the City hired Fehr & Peers to reallocate land use growth to be consistent with current PSRC Land Use Vision and to re -run the City's travel demand model. Key findings include: • The 2031 forecasted traffic volumes are not expected to grow as much within the City compared to the previous analysis (VMT is lower by three percent). • Most of the forecasted traffic volume decreases are in the Tukwila South area, where growth is not as rapid as was previously anticipated and where most of the employment growth was reduced. 1001 4th Avenue I Suite 4120 I Seattle, WA 98154 I (206) 576-4220 ( Fax (206) 576-4225 www.fehrardpeers.com 34 L. Benjamin July 28, 2017 Page 2 of 2 No changes are recommended to the proposed transportation capital improvement projects. Most of the proposed transportation improvement projects are recommended to remain as they were proposed for reasons beyond expanding capacity, including breaking up large blocks for more walkable/bikeable neighborhoods, and filling in missing gaps in the pedestrian and bicycle networks_ The large roadway projects to facilitate growth in Tukwila South were completed by the developer in the 2010-2012 timeframe. Attached is a memo detailing the analysis to reallocate land use growth to be consistent with current forecasts, as well as two maps that illustrate the distribution of household and employment growth by 2031 within the City. if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to give me a call at 206-576-4226 Sincerely, FEHR & PEERS Carmen Kwan Transportation Engineer/Planner 5E76-0496 Attachment: • Tukwila 2031 Land Use Revision --Travel Demand Modeling Response to PSRC Comments Memo 35 Proposed Revisions Tukwila Transportation Committee 8/15/2017 IR E ir_i6-T_Alicit(:2)--cD-Pio\-riTrAri-- 0 f n_ MPREHENSIVE PLAN 36 PURPOSE The Transportation Element establishes Tukwila's transportation goals and policies for the zo-year planning period. It provides direction for transportation decisions regarding annual plan updates, including: ✓ The Six -Year Transportation Improvement Pian (TIP); ✓ The Six -Year Capital Improvement Program and Financial Planning Model (CIPIFPM); ✓ The biennial budget; and ✓ Infrastructure Design and Construction Standards, It is key in supporting community livability and economic vitality, as prioritized in Tukwila's Strategic Plan. It also provides guidance for development review and approval, land use and zoning decisions, and continuing transportation and maintenance programs. The Transportation Element establishes a basis for decision-making that is consistent with Washington's Growth ManagementAct, King County's Countywide Planning Policies, and the Puget Sound Regional Council's (PSRC) Transportation zoiio. The specific requirements of each of these plans are fulfilled by the City of Tukwila Transportation Element Background Report (including a revised Travel Demand Miemorandum dated December o. 2o16) of the Comprehensive Plan Update (hereafter referred to in this element as the Background Report), and summarized herein. The Transportation Background Report, Walk and Roll Non -motorized Transportation Plan, Tukwila Transit Network Plan, Commute Trip Reduction (CTR) Program and Plan, Growth and Transportation Efficiency Center (ETEC) Plan, the annually -updated six-year Transportation improvement Plan, six- year CIPjFPM, and the budget are all adopted by reference in the Tukwila Comprehensive Plan. ISSUES Tukwila's diverse transportation system includes freeways, highways, arterial streets, access streets, bus, light rail, commuter rail transit service, Amtrak passenger rail service, sidewalks, trails and neighborhood footpaths. In addition, Sea -Tac International Airport and Boeing Field provide air transportation for general, commercial and business aviation. The Duwamish River provides water access to Elliott Bay and beyond. The City's road and rail network enables freight and rail transportation within and through the city. Future Tukwila transportation system additions include Bus Rapid Transit. A detailed inventory of the existing transportation system in Tukwila is contained in the Background Report (Fehr& Peers, May 2012). The major transportation issues facing Tukwila include the following: u Physical and geographic barriers that challenge connectivity throughout the City. Physical barriers include the valley wall, the Green/Duwamish River, and highways that separate portions of the City from each other, increasing emergency services response times and cost. Residents value quiet neighborhood streets that exist in an incomplete or disconnected street system. With relatively few „through" streets, many vehicles use the streets that do connect, burdening the adjacent properties and residents. The large volume of vehicles on through -streets also makes it more difficult to walk to destinations such as schools, libraries or shopping. u Limited funding to satisfy competing priorities. 37 — Increasing connectivity is very costly given the need to acquire new rights-of-way, conducting engineering studies and design, and construction costs. Criteria for grant funding are most often targeted to Tukwila's Urban Center or the Manufacturing!Industrial Center because these are the locations where significant employment and residential growth are planned and are supported by regional plans_ There are unmet needs in other areas of the City, including streets that do not meet City standards, and it is unlikely that the roads would be improved by new development in these already developed areas_ u Reliance on regional agencies, such as the Port of Seattle, Metro and Sound Transit, to serve local needs. GOALS, POLICIES AND STRATEGIES The Transportation Element supports the City's Land Use Element. It demonstrates how the City will maintain and preserve the existing network as well as address deficiencies, while demonstrating how planned growth will be accommodated over the next zo years per the Office of Financial Management (OFM) and PS RC forecasts. The household and job forecasts for Tukwila are for an additional 4.800 households and 27,57t.S,coo jobs by the year e_0302031_, with most of that occurring in the Southcenter, Tukwila International Boulevard and Tukwila South mixed-use commercial areas.. To plan for land use and transportation changes associated with this growth, these households and jobs are assigned to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) based on the availability of vacant and redevelopable lands (Maps 13-1 and 13-2). Employment forecasts in the Transportation Element– and used for the Transportation Demand Model –that include 4 -7z6 -703,c, coo additional jobs from 2010—ae-36nearly 0+441 e -the -gr _u.. _.. eeecasts represent (i.e., as, soe-,a +it-ier l -j :-by 2o3i)were updated in a revised transportation model run in 2016. The original Transportation Demand Model run in 2010 was developed using employment forecast information available at the time. Since then, the employment forecasttaaseciaw�as revised downward significantly due to the effects of the great recession on the regional economy. In addition, current forecasts are based to a greater degree on adopted King County Growth Targets for Tukwila. wth targets during the next scheduled 38 ELEMENT 13 1 RHIaspuRuiu IVIG Projected Household Growth by Traffic Analysis Zone 2010-2030 Rent 0 Mup 13-1: Projectei Household Growth Legend E,;_i CityLimits Household Growth ri 0 - 15 cJ16-50 051 -100 =101 - 200 ME 201 and above TURWILA COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - 2015 PAuE 13-5 39 Des Moines 111111 0 0.5 1 ilex Revised Map 13-1: Projected Household Growth Projected Household Growth by Traffic Analysis Zone 2010-2031 Legend -a-- ity Limits Household Growth I-7 0-15 16-50 51 - 100 101 - 200 201 and abve Page 13-5 40 EEEmEl7 13 ,Seattle Projected Employment Growth by Traffic Analysis Zone 2010-2030 .5 0.25 0 rcent 0 Mop 13-2: Projected Employment Growth Legend r_ -i CityLimits Employment Growth la0-50 EJ 51 - 2uu 0 201 - 450 451 -1500 1501 and above TUKWILA COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - 2015 PAuE 3-0 41 Revised Map 13-2: Projected Employment Growth Projected Employment Growth by i,:tf�lt Analysis Zone 2010-203 1 Legend Employment Growth 0-50 51 -100 101- 200 201 - 450 I 1 451 and above Page 13-6 42 TRANSPORTATION WHAT IS TRANSPORTATION CONCURRENCY? The Washington State Growth Management Act requires the City to ensure that transportation programs, projects and services needed to serve growth are regionally coordinated, and are in place either when new development occurs or within six years. This is done to make sure the City can provide the transportation improvements needed to maintain its adopted standards of service and so that conditions do not degrade with the addition of the new households and workers in the City. Implementation Strategies Implement sidewalk ordinance. Implement subdivision ordinance, implement Street Network Plan. Emergency vehicle criteria in street design standards. Prioritize neighborhood quality design features when reducing street facilities (e.g., removal of one lane of parking before removal of sidewalk). Traffic Calming Program. Develop methods to incentivize and encourage coordinated development between adjacent commercial properties, including shared driveways and direct vehicular access between parking Tots. The projected growth numbers in Tukwila and surrounding areas were used in the Background Report for the Transportation Element of the Comprehensive Plan Update to anticipate traffic volumes and levels of service in delete - 2030 (and add 2031.) The Level of Service (LOS) analysis is one of the ways the City plans and budgets for future transportation projects. The City balances the fiscal constraints of its financing plan for transportation programs and projects with planned growth and existing needs. To do this, Tukwila monitors LOS on arterial streets to examine the existing performance of the system and anticipated impacts of planned land use growth, to determine what adjustments will need to be made to maintain adopted LOS standards concurrent with new development. Properly applied and monitored, LOS standards for the transportation network ensure that mobility, vitality and quality of life for the city is maintained. For the delete - 2030 (and add - 2031) planning horizon, significant new capacity will be required to accommodate future growth throughout the city, although the majority of the project capacity needs are in the Southcenter area. TUKWILA COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - 2015 PAGE 13-10 43 TRANSPORTATION RELATED INFORMATION Transportation Background Report Walk and Roll Non -motorized Transportation Plan Commute Trip Reduction (CTRLProgram and Plan Growth and Transportation Efficiency Center(GTEC) Plan Tukwila Transit Network Pian ADD: Fehr & Peers 12/30/2016 Memo on Tukwila 2031 Land Use Revision - Travel Demand Modeling Response to PSRC Comments TUKWILA COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - 3015 PAGE 13-30 44 FEHR)' PEERS MEMORANDUM Date: December 30, 2016 To: Robin Tischmak and Bob Giberson, City of Tukwila From: Carmen Kwan and Chris Breiland, Fehr & Peers Subject: Tukwila 2031 Land Use Revision - Travel Demand Modeling Response to PSRC Comments SEI6-0498 The Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) reviewed the City of Tukwila's draft Comprehensive Plan Elements in 2013 and identified that the land use growth forecast by 2031 in the Transportation Element was higher than current PSRC growth assumptions_ In response to this comment, the forecast land use growth was revised to be consistent with PSRC assumptions and the City's travel demand model was re -run. This document details the analysis process and summarizes the new model results. The transportation capital improvement projects previously proposed were also reviewed to identify if any changes in the project list would be necessary based on the new growth forecasts. BACKGROUND The City of Tukwila updated the Transportation Element of the Comprehensive Plan between 2010 and 2012, in part because of a major planned development in the southern portion of the city that could potentially impact the long-term transportation needs for the City. At that time the PSRC regional land use forecasts had not yet been adjusted to account for the magnitude of the 2008- 2009 recession and resulting slowdown in the real estate market nationwide. In general, the earlier PSRC land use forecast predicted more growth by 2031 than the current (2016) land use forecasts. The other elements of the Tukwila Comprehensive Plan were updated during the 2013-2015 period and incorporated the more recent (lower) growth forecasts from the PSRC. The rest of this memorandum describes the method used to align the Transportation Element growth forecasts with the rest of the Comprehensive Plan. 1001 4tAvenue 1 Sulte 4120 1 Seattle, WA 981541 (206) 576-4220 1 Fax (206) 576-4225 www.feh randpee rs.com 45 City of Tukwila December 30, 2016 Page 2of5 ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY The previous analysis completed for the Transportation Element assumed a growth of 27,665 jobs and 4,905 households by 2031, PSRC's review noted that this employment growth for the City of Tukwila is almost double the current forecast of 15,500 job growth between 2010 and 2031. PSRC also forecasts a slightly lower number of households in the city by 2031 (4,800 new households), Land Use Revision In response to these comments, the 2031 land use assumptions were revised and the City's travel demand model was re -run to evaluate how traffic forecasts would change from the previous 2031 analysis (prepared with the higher growth forecasts). Key assumptions are listed below: • Land use forecasts were revised to match the Land Use Vision (LUV,1) Dataset, the most recent land use forecasts released by the PSRC in September 2015. • Land use growth assumptions in the Southcenter Subarea of Tukwila remained relatively consistent with the Southcenter Regional Growth Center EIS analysis prepared in 2014. Growth was adjusted elsewhere in the City based en the LUV.1 Dataset. A summary of the assumed land use growth is presented in Table 1. The revised 2031 forecasts show that the land use assumptions are consistent with PSRC growth assumptions of 4,800 households and 15,500jobs between 2010 and 2031. The revised 2031 land use has a decrease of 105 households and 14,140 jobs compared to the previous analysis. Land use growth assumptions by TAZ are in Attachment A, TABLE 1. CITY OF TUKWILA LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS Scenario 2013 Base Year Revised 2031 Forecasts Total Households and Jobs Growth from 2010 7,435 Households, 47,540 Jobs +35 Households, +1,970 Jobs' 12,200 Households, +4,800 Households, 61,070 Jobs +15,500 Jobs 12010 to 2013 household and job growth estimates are from PSRC Covered Employment Estimates and Residential Building Permit Summaries. Source: City of Tukwila, PSRC, Fehr & Pers, 2016. 46 City of Tukwila December 30, 2016 Page3of5 MODELING RESULTS The City's travel demand model was re -run with the revised land use growth assumptions described earlier. An example travel demand model difference plot of the change in PM peak hour traffic volume per travel lane is shown in Figure 1. The green bars show a decrease in vehicle traffic and the red bars show an increase in vehicle traffic compared to the previous 2031 analysis. FIGURE 1. 2031TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL DIFFERENCE PLOT Source' Fehr & Peers, 2016_ 47 City of Tukwila December 30, 2016 Page 4 of 5 While there is some model "noise" in the difference plot results where some routes have minor increase or decrease in vehicle volumes compared to before, the overall observations from the new travel model runs are summarized below. • The 2031 forecasted traffic volumes are not expected to grow as much within the City of Tukwila compared to the previous analysis. The slightly lower vehicle traffic growth is reasonable based on the reduction of approximately 14,100 jobs and 100 households throughout the City by 2031 compared to the previous analysis. The new 2031 model run's slightly lower traffic growth is minor as there is only a three percent decrease in vehicle - miles -travelled (VMT) on City streets during the PM period compared to the previous analysis (excluding freeways)- • Most of the forecasted traffic volume decreases are south of 5 180th Street. This is expected as the growth near Southcenter Regional Growth Center did not change much from the earlier analysis, and most of the employment reduction was in the Tukwila South area, where growth is not as rapid as was anticipated in the earlier forecasts, Overall, City staff felt this area had the least amount of momentum for growth compared to the rest of the City. • No changes are recommended to the proposed transportation capital improvement projects. A review of the previously recommended projects was completed based on the new model run results. In general, all the projects identified in the Transportation Element are recommended to remain because: v Most of the street extension projects were recommended to reduce block size and improve mobility for all modes. These projects would improve street grid connectivity, improve the walkability by breaking up large blocks, and potentially improve emergency response times. While there is a minor decrease in vehicle volumes in the new model run compared to the previous results, projects are recommended to remain to help the City achieve the desired urban form and street network connectivity pattern. o Intersection improvements at various intersections such as adding turn pockets are still recommended as the model shows that turning volumes that triggered the additional turn lanes will not decrease enough to eliminate the need for the additional lanes. a Many projects were identified to enhance pedestrian and/or bicycle facilities. While growth is slightly lower with the new land use forecasts, the need for a 48 City of Tukwila December 30, 2016 Page 5 of 5 comprehensive and connective pedestrian and bicycle network is not altered by the revised land use forecasts. CONCLUSION A new travel model run was completed with revised 2031 land use growth reallocated to be consistent with PSRC's vision of 15,500 new jobs and 4,800 new households between 2010 and 2031 in Tukwila. Based on the results of the new travel model run, no changes to the Transportation Element project list are recommended. While the traffic growth by 2031 is not expected to be as high as the previous analysis (VMT is lower by three percent), most of the proposed transportation improvement projects are recommended to remain as they were proposed for reasons beyond expanding capacity, including breaking up large blocks for more walkable/bikeable neighborhoods, and filling in missing gaps in the pedestrian and bicycle networks. Attach ment: Attachment A: Land Use Totals by TAZ & TAZ Map 49 Attachment A; Land Use Assumptions and TAZ Map Revised City of Tukwila Travel Demand Model Land Use New 2031 Revision City of Tukwila Households Employment 2013 Ease Year 7,435 47,540 Old 2031 Land Use 12,340 75,205 Previous 2013.2031 Growth 4,905 27,665 New 2031 Revision 12,200 61,070 2010 - 2013 Growth (PSRC Estimates) 35 1,970 2013 - 2030 Growth 4,765 13,530 2010 - 2030 Total Growth 4,800 15,500 50 2.013 Base Year 2031 land Use Revision Consistent with PSRC Land Use Vision Old 2031 Land Use TOTALS 7,435 47,540 12,200 01,070 12,340 75,205 Subarea TAZ HH EMP Total HH Tbtai EMP Total HH Total EMP x 1 0 6,166 217 7,754 224 7,754 x 2 0 734 136 866 140 - 866 x 3 0 294 136 426 140 426 x 4 0 943 295 984 305 984 x 5 0 513 155 801 150 801 x 6 0 378 143 528 148 528 x 7 0 749 302 1,219 312 1,219 x 8 0 551 229 592 236 592 x 9 0 931 143 1,607 148 1,607 x 10 0 1,004 163 1,276 148 1,276 x 11 0 550 0 618 0 618 x 12 0 1,063 0 1,131 1,106 0 0 1,131 1,106 x 13 2 702 0 14 0 1,172 0 1,645 0 1,645 x 15 6 559 0 626 0 626 x 16 0 271 0 339 0 339 x 17 0 604 0 672 0 672 x 18 0 1,139 0 1,206 0 1,206 19 1 316 1 367 71 551 20 2 181 332 270 343 270 x 21 0 248 291 278 300 278 x 22 0 255 192 358 198 358 23 3 928 0 1,088 3 1,152 x 24 0 781 - 0 781 25 0 1,100 0 1,328 0 1,325 26 1 1,115 1 1,165 113 3,552 27 4 86 52 603 113 28 113 525 156 531 156 596 29 1,080 111 1,107 144 1,104 270 30 563 596 282 596 281 31 0 781 12 915 12 940 32 8 950 8 1,108 8 1,335 33 88 128 100 287 100 353 34 558 370 588 371 588 529 35 132 5 228 6 200 5 36 224 56 234 56 224 56 50 51 37 5 0 83 0 68 0 38 127 6 205 17 188 6 39 214 252 273 489 252 472 40 353 13 353 13 384 93 41 271 188 323 188 304 268 42 162 75 225 199 212 184 43 95 49 132' 81 124 78 44 35 7 102 13 96 7 45 66 6 136! 12 128 6 46 475 36 540 41 508 36 47 18 239 34 314 32 311 48 123 267 192 537 168 518 49 279 141 299 176 308 170 50 85 8 179 8 148 8 51 158 18 216 18 192 18 52 149 150 169 170 176 179 53 114 42 149 161 164 151 54 89 40 148 44 152 40 55 98 18 184 _ 18 160 18 56 158 17 224 194 200 247 57 188 _ 58- 222 105 216 221 58 64 2 120 3 128 2 59 158 22 201 35 220 _ 22 60 20 721 20 949 20 9.45 61 34 12 116 12 96 12 62 112 4 222 4 184 4 63 77 234 102 _ 315 _ 100 306 64 104 52 119 52 116 92 65 71 135 81 333 100 389 66 0 3,125 0 3,365 _ 0 3,351 67 392 274 414, 275 404 277 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 69 109 1 140 2 172 1 70 128 4 156 4 152 4 71 41 5 107 12 104 5 72 13 35 78 35 76 35 73 0 250 0 860 0 1,200 74 15 2,341 13 2,391 15 2,381 75 10 1,582 9 1,825 10 2,532 76 13 101 12 308 13 327 77 0 807 0 850 0 847 78 0 2,540 0 3,444 0 3,490 79 0 213 0 213 0 394 80 0 500 0 502 0 500 81 -_� 0 361 0 958 0 1,312 83 17 6,110 17 6,976 17 7,061 103 16 2 52 607 113 3,552 104 0 0 34 605 78 3,552 51 LEGEND TYaraG AM* MS Zane (TAZ) En City al Tukwila la,.z Potential Annexation Area 0 N NOT TO SCALE FEHR+ PEERS WpadWIa cIdifiRe}euM14d111100.71.64 •Tins E bmeniee phesrG1 SW)(IN 1 4AT,jppaNs mud CITY OF TUKWILA - TRANSPORTATION AREA ZONE (TAZ) MAP FIGURE A-1 52 Legend City Limits Household Growth 0-15 15-50 51 - 100 I. 101 - 200 201 and abve 53 Legend Employment Growth 0-50 ©51-100 101 - 200 201 - 450 451 and above 54