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Home My WebLink AboutCOW 2017-08-28 Item 2 - Presentation - WRIA 9 Climate Change and Green/Duwamish RiverWRIA 9 Climate Change Impacts on Salmon Summary of the 'technical briefing' for the Salmon Habitat Plan Update Presented to the Tukwila City Council August 28th 2017 Kollin Higgins, Environmental Scientist, King County/WRIA 9 Why address climate change now? • Not addressed in 2005 Salmon Habitat Plan • Scientific studies suggest strong negative impacts to salmon and their habitat • Understanding climate change means we can adjust strategies to improve long term salmon resiliency Climate Change Impacts on WRIA 9 Salmonids Adapted from Beechie et al. (2012). Fish timing represents typical fish behavior. Chinook Subyearling Yearling HOPP Steelhead Pink c Ca mai N Nov, De Jan, Feb. I Mar. Incubate Rearing Apr. Year 2 May Jun. 1 Jul. 1 Aug. 1 River entry 1 Spawn Incubate River entry Spawn Smolt Sept. 1 Oct N Dec. „_ AIM \\\......___ . CENTRAL MEI' SCUM Jan U41 King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks Year 3 Feb. I Mar. I Apr. I May I Jun. I Jul. I Aug. Rearing Smolt 1 1 Incubate Rearing River entry Spawn Incubate Rearing Smolt River entry Spawn Incubate 1> Smolt 1-2 Year Rearing River entry I Spawn Incubate Increased summer temperature may decrease growth or kill juvenile salmon where temperatures are already high and block/delay migration. May also decrease spawning fecundity (e.g. Chinook). Rearing Smolt Decreased summer low flow may contribute to increased temperature, decrease rearing habitat capacity for juvenile salmonids, and decrease access to or availability of spawning areas. Increased winter floods may increase scour of eggs, or increase mortaility of rearing juveniles where flood refugia are not available, displace juveniles to less desirable habitats. Smolt 'u et oun' •cear Loss of spring snowmelt may decrease or eliminate spawning opportunities for steelhead, may alter survival of eggs or emergent fry for other salmonid species, cause early dewatering of off channel and side channel habitats, and reduce connectivity to the floodplain. 1701_O 195wyreen_fish_impacts a Incubate Incubate S River entry er entry Spawn Incubate y magi my O M Vi C R mai U T Or4? abate ubate Climate Change Impacts mon WRIA 9 Salmonids Adapted from Beechie et al. (2012). Fish timing represents typical fish behavior. Chinook Subyearling Yearling Coho Chum Steelhead Pink cCa m w O N .iur Year 1 .iuI. wuy. Oct. No� River entry pawn n River entry Spun Ink River entry Spawr River entry Spawn Increased summer temperature may decrease growth or kill juvenile salmon where temperatures are already high and block/delay migration. May also decrease spawning fecundity (e.g. Chinook). Dec. Jan Feb. ar. Apr. Year 2 nny dun. Ftiari ig s olt .Tui. xu . ae Oct I N 1 Rearing Rearir Dec. • CENTRAL MEI' NUM Jan Lig King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks Year 3 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Smolt ) Rering Smolt wn Incubate Re ring Smolt L Decreased summer low flow may contribute to increased temperature, decrease rearing habitat capacity for juvenile salmonids, and decrease access to or availability of spawning areas. 1-2 Year caring Smolt Smolt Increased winter floods may increase scour of eggs, or increase mortaility of rearing juveniles where flood refugia are not available, displace juveniles to less desirable habitats. 'u et oun. Icear Loss of spring snowmelt may decrease or eliminate spawning opportunities for steelhead, may alter survival of eggs or emergent fry for other salmonid species, cause early dewatering of off channel and side channel habitats, and reduce connectivity to the floodplain. Expected changes to our climate • Warmer temperatures c ri" AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE PUGET SOUND REGION ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE COMING DECADES limmp'ruture drjjerrerrer• r tatiw to 1950-1999rveruge 1 1950 1475 2000 2025 2056 2075 210{I The graph shows average annual air temperatures projected by climate models, relative to the average for 1950-1999 (horizontal gray line: the average annual temperature for the Puget Sound region is 44°F). Thin colored lines show individual climate model projections; thick colored lines show the averages of the models. Data source: Downscaled climate projections • HISTORICAL • LOW EMISSIONS (RCP 4-.5) • HIGH EMISSIONS (RCP 8.5) GRAPH BY UW CLIMATE I MPA CTS GROUP • The last 15 of 16 years were the hottest years on record Expected changes to our climate • Warmer temperatures • Less snow HISTORIC RIC 0 r1l(ZING LEVI. CUM (Am When prnci pa nt n . i'+c'iw, 0 Is. star id 15 ice and 3nov,J that slanrl y rr t :_ . i water to rivers thou ghout th yeat including l'AV2 stunner eIlddr0,uglltpertods. When predpation falls as rags, wakes quickly enters river • systerns dun ng falf and winter. often cnntrrbutirrg to flood risk. As free ing Duels rrse, the a rim potenualry susLepllble to floodin9 ncreases. PREDICTED Graphic developed by the Skagit Climate Science Consortium (SC2)_ For more information, visit www.skagitc l imatescie nce.org. Expected changes to our climate • Warmer temperatures • Less snow • Same overall precipitation, but more in winter, less in summer tce Q Q ITS 0 Q 94 - Historical M B 2040s M B 2080s Lowland Tributaries (like Riverton, Gilliam) Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Month t c Feb Apr Ju nAlug Month Winter peak flows are expected to increase by 28%-34% by the 2080s Climate Change Impacts on WRIA 9 Salmonids Adapted from Beechie et al. (2012). Fish timing represents typical fish behavior. Year 1 Jun. I Jul. I Aug. I Sept I Oct. No Dec. Jan I Feb. ar. Chinook lolePW Subyearling Yearling Coho Chum Steel head Pink c CD mai m} O N River entry Spawn In ubate Dearing Apr. Year 2 May I Jun. 1 Jul. 1 Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct N Dec. Smolt River entry Spawn In. bate „_ AM �, t. CENTRAL MEI' SCUM Jan U41 King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks Year 3 Feb. I Mar. I Apr. I May I Jun. I Jul. I Aug. Rearing Smolt 1 1 River entry Spawr Incubate Rearing er entry Spawn Incubate Rearing Smolt River entry River entry Spawn Sp wn Incubate Smolt 1-2 Year Rearing Incubate Increased summer temperature may decrease growth or kill juvenile salmon where temperatures are already high and block/delay migration. May also decrease spawning fecundity (e.g. Chinook). Rearing Smolt Decreased summer low flow may contribute to increased temperature, decrease rearing habitat capacity for juvenile salmonids, and decrease access to or availability of spawning areas. Increased winter floods may increase scour of eggs, or increase mortaility of rearing juveniles where flood refugia are not available, displace juveniles to less desirable habitats. Smolt 'u et oun' •cear Loss of spring snowmelt may decrease or eliminate spawning opportunities for steelhead, may alter survival of eggs or emergent fry for other salmonid species, cause early dewatering of off channel and side channel habitats, and reduce connectivity to the floodplain. 1701_O 195wy re en_fish_impacts a High flows Fewer total juveniles when experience extremely high flows uveni es s•awner; 0 =71- - . . .■ . . . . . 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Peak flow during incubation Nov 1 - Jan 14 Feb 2012 —11,000 cfs is* Feb 2012 —11,000 cf High Flow Actions? • Setback levees & revetments • Reconnect/Recreate floodplain areas • Improved stormwater controls -especially for older developed areas Actions? • Remove flap gates Expected changes to our climate CLIMATE i IMPACTS r- i06. GROUP More Intense Heavy Rains Heaviest rain events are projected to become +22% more intense (range. +5 to +34%) by the 2080s. Warner, Mass, Salathe, J Hydromet, 2014 I` Increase in Peak Flows '(` Increase channel width • Culverts will be undersized 'j` Flooding problems 'j` Fish passage problems Actions? Build bigger culverts/ bridges than is strictly necessary for today Increase Culvert Cost 60 50 40 30 20 10 Round, Steel, Stream Simulation Culvert 12% cost increase / 10% width increase , —'—°% increase cost vs. % f ` increase culvert width - - - regression 0 10 20 30 % Increase Culvert Width 40 Cco CD 8r) Climate Change Impacts on WRIA 9 Salmonids Adapted from Beechie et al. (2012). Fish timing represents typical fish behavior. Chinook Subyearling Yearling Coho Chum Steel head Pink d U } O 'Cr IVCD mai CD } O N n. I Jul. I Aug. I Sept I I Jan I Feb. j Mar. Apr. I May River entry Spn C Reari 9 Year 2 Jun. 1 Jul. 1 Aug. I Sept. Oct N Dec. Smolt River entry 1 Spa n C „_ �, t. CENTRAL PNRET SCUM Jan U41 King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks Year 3 Feb. I Mar. I Apr. I May I Jun. I Jul. I Aug. Rearing Smolt 1 1 Rearing R ing Smolt Smolt 1-2 Year Rearing -11.I River entry 1 I J^ Increased summer temperature may decrease growth or kill juvenile salmon where temperatures are already high and block/delay migration. May also decrease spawning fecundity (e.g. Chinook). Decreased summer low flow may contribute to increased temperature, decrease rearing habitat capacity for juvenile salmonids, and decrease access to or availability of spawning areas. Increased winter floods may increase scour of eggs, or increase mortaility of rearing juveniles where flood refugia are not available, displace juveniles to less desirable habitats. Smolt 'u et oun' •cear Loss of spring snowmen may decrease or eliminate spawning opportunities for steelhead, may alter survival of eggs or emergent fry for other salmonid species, cause early dewatering of off channel and side channel habitats, and reduce connectivity to the floodplain. Lower flows sooner & more often Lower spring/summer stream flows • Less stream area = less space for each fish: Adults and juveniles Courtesy of Tyler Patters Other Impacts Juvenile Stranding Primary Low Flow Actions? • Revegetate riparian areas • Restore wetlands (recharge) areas • Support/expand outreach to reduce water consumption Climate Change Impacts on WRIA 9 Salmonids Adapted from Beechie et al. (2012). Fish timing represents typical fish behavior. Chinook Subyearling Yearling Coho Chum Steelhead Pink m 'z CD CD U >- C. O R N c(a (a w O N Jun. Jul. 1 Cclr Aug. Sept Jan Feb. Mar. 1 Apr Year 9 May Jun. 1 Jul. 1 Aug. 1 Sept. River entry Rearing Smolt River entry Rearing Incubate Rearing River entry 1 Spawn Incubate %/1' River entry River entry Rearing Smolt Spawn Incu bat( Oct N Dec. • CENTRAL MEI' iMM Jan King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks Year 3 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Smolt 1 ) 1-2 Year Raring Smolt Incubate Increased summer temperature may decrease growth or kill juvenile salmon where temperatures are already high and block/delay migration. May also decrease spawning fecundity (e.g. Chinook). Rearing Smol Decreased summer low flow may contribute to increased temperature, decrease rearing habitat capacity for juvenile salmonids, and decrease access to or availability of spawning areas. Increased winter floods may increase scour of eggs, or increase mortaility of rearing juveniles where flood refugia are not available, displace juveniles to less desirable habitats. Smolt 'u et oun. Icear Loss of spring snowmelt may decrease or eliminate spawning opportunities for steelhead, may alter survival of eggs or emergent fry for other salmonid species, cause early dewatering of off channel and side channel habitats, and reduce connectivity to the floodplain. 1701_8195wyreen_fish_im pacts a Not only does warmer air affect flow levels... - AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE PUGET SOUND REGION ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE COMING DECADES Ternrura7lziredifference relative kJ19:;(1-I 99irverag } 1950 I r I 191 2{1'.25 Years 2075 2I D I l The graph shows average annual air temperatures projected by climate models, relative to the average for 1950-1999 (horizontal gray line: the average annual temperature for the Puget Sound region is 44°F) Thin colored lines show individual climate model projections; thick colored lines show the averages of the models. Data source: Downscaled climate projections • HISTORICAL • LOW EMISSIONS (RCP 4.5) • HIGH EMISSIONS (RCP 8.5) GRAPH BY UW CLIMATE IMPACTS GROUP Warming Streams By the 2080s: • Warming Streams: +4.0°F to +4.5°F, on average. • Number of river miles exceeding thermal tolerances are projected to increase by >70 mi. for salmon, and >170 mi. for char CLIMATE 14 PACTS 5 GROUP < 12°C 12'C -16C 18°C - 18'C > 18' C Data source:. 'orWeST, Figure: Climate Impacts Group The Muckleshoot Indian Tribe reported dead Chinook in the Green River below the hatchery in 2015 Primary Action Trees are the Answer vv w.efcrester.org SUC American Chinese Proverb The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now Climate Change Impacts won WRIA 9 Salmonids Adapted from Beechie et al. (2012). Fish timing represents typical fish behavior. Chinook lolePW Subyearling Yearling Coho Chum Steelhead Pink Year 1 Jun. I Jul. I Aug. I Sept Oct. c Ca mai O N River entry Nov, De Spawn Jan Feb. I Mar. Incubate Rearing Apr. Year 2 May I Jun. 1 Jul. 1 Aug. 1 River entry Spawn Incubate River entry Spawn Smolt Sept. 1 Oct N Dec. „_ AM �, t. CENTRAL MEI' SCUM Jan U41 King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks Year 3 Feb. I Mar. I Apr. I May Rearing Incubate Smolt Jun. I Jul. I A Rearing River en Incubate Rearing Smolt River entry Spawn Incubate Smolt 1-2 Year Rearing River entry I Spawn Incubate Increased summer temperature may decrease growth or kill juvenile salmon where temperatures are already high and block/delay migration. May also decrease spawning fecundity (e.g. Chinook). Rearing Smolt Decreased summer low flow may contribute to increased temperature, decrease rearing habitat capacity for juvenile salmonids, and decrease access to or availability of spawning areas. Increased winter floods may increase scour of eggs, or increase mortaility of rearing juveniles where flood refugia are not available, displace juveniles to less desirable habitats. Smolt Loss of spring snowmelt may decrease or eliminate spawning opportunities for steelhead, may alter survival of eggs or emergent fry for other salmonid species, cause early dewatering of off channel and side channel habitats, and reduce connectivity to the floodplain. 1701_O 195wy re en_fish_impacts a Sea Level Rise -last 100 years 0.60 0.45 0.30 0.15 1n 0.00 2 -0.15 - 0, l l -0.45 -0.60 1890 9447130 Seattle, Washington 1.99 + i- 0.16 mm !yr — Linear Mean Sea Level Trend — Upper 95% Confidence Interval — Lower 95% Confidence Inteival _ Monthly mean sea level with the average seasonal Circle removed r loft„- 14 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 • Seattle Tide Gage • 8 inches in 100 yrs 25 26 Thermal Expansion Glaciers/land ice melting 35% IV HISTORIC CURRENT When ctvriparicri folly ,s ,..now, cl Is siowi i5 ice and snow • that sfavly rneIts. providing water to rivers throughout tl7c year. Including fate summer aitidamug Ittpistols. rrkErZING LrVri. When precipaticn fails as rain, water quickly enters river • sysserns dun rig fall and winter, often contributing to flood risk. AY frict nq ,,ukrals Ilse, ale arm! potential!). su Si@'j:Ni,rhl!' tri flooding 'nueases. PREDICTED Graphic developed by the Skagit Climate Science Consortium (SC). For more information, visit www.skagitclimatescience.org. 40-50% Sea Level Rise impacts/effects? • Marine shoreline-lft increase turns a 100 year storm into a 2 year storm • Duwamish convert shallow habitats to deep • Upland areas may convert to aquatic areas Northeast Tukwila -West of E. Marginal Way Actions? • Stronger protections for unarmored shorelines • Require new/replacement bulkheads/revetments to be set back much higher than OHWM • Evaluate upland areas most at risk of inundation - in conjunction with the communities to look for opportunities to transition to aquatic habitats To Sum Up • Salmon are very adaptable. If there weren't they'd be extinct by now • They can adapt if we help "Someone should steadily be asking, "is this the way we want it to be, now and in the future? The ultimate condition of the Green River Basin should be the result of informed and farsighted public decisions." From A River of Green, 1970s