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Home My WebLink AboutCAP 2009-07-27 Item 2B - Update - Growth TargetsCity of Tukwila Department of Community Development Jack Pace, Director INFORMATIONAL MEMORANDUM TO: Mayor Haggerton Community Affairs and Parks Committee FROM: Jack Pace, DCD Director DATE: March 4, 2009 Subject: Briefing on new Growth Targets ISSUE Briefing on new growth targets for King County and Cities BACKGROUND H: \KC Growth Targets Briefing Paper 2- 5- 09.docJP ATTACHMENT A Jim Haggerton, Mayor Under Washington State's GMA, King County and its cities must adopt comprehensive plans that accommodate 20 years of anticipated population and employment growth. Plans must provide for land uses and densities, capital facilities and transportation infrastructure, that are sufficient to meet future needs. Local governments have discretion as to how they will accommodate the growth within their borders. Local jurisdictions must update their comprehensive plans at least every 7 years. Cities in King County last completed their plan updates in 2004. The deadline for the next plan update is December 2011. Every five years, the state Office of Financial Management (OFM) issues population projections for each county in the state as a basis for GMA planning. Based on these projections, counties and cities collaborate in determining local allocations of that growth. The act requires that local growth numbers be updated at least every ten years. New Population and Employment Projections for King County In King County, growth targets are policy statements indicating the minimum number of households and jobs each jurisdiction plans to accommodate during the current Growth Management period. The targets are based on the OFM population projections along with employment forecasts produced by the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC). The county is an attractive region which, over the long term, is expected to see robust amounts of growth. OFM released new projections in 2007, which show King County growing at a faster rate than previously forecasted. The result: nearly 100,000 more people countywide in 2022 than currently planned for. Overall, the county is expected to grow by about 450,000 people Attachment A Page 1 of 4 05/11/2009 nn a ...1 s D....1,,,..,,..1 c,. ;t,, 41111/1 T,.L,.,;1 LV.rol,;i,.rt.,,• 02 1521? P1,.,v,., 11l,_A 1_2f71") F',-r-• Ml,_Q between 2006 and 2031 to a total population of 2.3 million. The graph below shows the new projection as an extension of historical trends and compared with the 2002 OFM projection. The latest employment forecasts released by PSRC in 2006 show growth in the county, over this same period, of nearly 450,000 jobs to a total of 1.7 million jobs. 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 n 4 110 .1..n 1D OFM Population Trends /Forecasts for King County Numbers in thousands 1,507 1,140 935 I Population I I Trend I I OFM 2007 I Forecast 1,73 1,80 1,/54 ,861 2,11 Adoption of Growth Targets by the Growth Management Planning Council 2,019 OFM 2002 I Forecast 99 R3 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 The GMPC is a formal body consisting of elected officials from King County, Seattle, Bellevue, other cities and towns, special purpose districts, and the Port of Seattle. The GMPC responds to the GMA requirement that counties and cities collaborate to develop and adopt Countywide Planning Policies (CPPs). Household and job growth targets are contained in the CPPs. The CPPs were originally adopted by the GMPC in 1994. Growth targets were updated in 2002, for a planning period extending to 2022. The county and cities incorporated those targets into their 2004 plan updates. The GMPC will be considering new updates to the targets based on the new population projections from OFM, thus providing substantive guidance to cities as they update their 20 -year comprehensive plans once again. New growth targets would extend the countywide planning period out another 9 years, with a horizon of 2031, 20 years beyond the 2011 comprehensive plan update requirement. The CPPs establish the policy framework for allocating growth targets. Those policies include: 1) Limiting growth in Rural and Resource areas, 2) Focusing growth within the existing Urban Growth Area, within cities, and within designated Urban Centers and Manufacturing /Industrial Centers, 3) Improving jobs- housing balance within four planning subareas, and 4) Fostering a pattern of growth that ensures efficient use of infrastructure and can be served by public transportation. ..4' 11411 P)nnn Development of the targets, which are formally adopted by the GMPC and ratified by the county and cities, involves extensive coordination among staff from throughout the county. Through this process, every jurisdiction is expected to take its fair share of growth. The rationale for the staff recommended target allocation is based on best available demographic, economic, and land use data, and also incorporates unique factors and local policies. The timeline below gives an overview of the schedule for GMA planning actions for King County. CPPs OFM Projections Comp Plan Updates Growth Targets (current) Growth Targets (update) oy o° o New Policy Guidance from Vision 2040 u•'V!• P...,- 7_5_110 rinr•iP PAOP of 4 ti °tio 'L °tip ti °,yo The Puget Sound Regional Council recently adopted Vision 2040, a growth management, transportation, and economic development strategy for the 4- county region. With Vision 2040, the PSRC has amended its Multicounty Planning Policies (MPPs) to address coordinated action around a range of policy areas, including land use and development patterns. The GMPC will be updating its countywide policies in 2010 to bring them into consistency with the MPPs. Vision 2040 also contains a Regional Growth Strategy that provides substantive guidance for planning for the roughly 1.7 million additional people and 1.2 million additional jobs expected in the region between 2000 and 2040. The Strategy retains much of the discretion that counties and cities have in setting local targets, while calling for broad shifts in where growth locates within the region. In comparison to current targets and plans, the Strategy calls for: Increasing the amount of growth targeted to cities that contain regionally designated urban centers (to include both metropolitan centers and many suburban cities) Increasing the amount of growth targeted to other large cities (with combined population and employment of at least 22,500) Decreasing the amount of growth targeted to Urban designated unincorporated areas, Rural designated unincorporated areas, and to smaller cities Achieving a greater jobs housing balance within the region New growth targets for King County are expected to move toward achieving the desired pattern of growth laid out in Vision 2040, while recognizing the long -term nature of the regional land use goals and the many challenges involved in "bending the trend" away from past growth patterns. 05/11/2009 Next Steps Staff work toward updated growth targets for King County is underway now. In the coming months, cities will be asked to review and provide input on a range of potential future growth scenarios. Based on this process, recommended draft targets may go to the GMPC as early as July 2009, with a vote for adoption possible at the council's September 2009 meeting. Once adopted, growth targets must be ratified by the county council and cities. Adopting targets ahead of the 2011 comprehensive plan updates will ensure that appropriate and timely planning can be done to accommodate projected growth. u.wir• Tarrrnfc Rri.fina PanPr 1_5 -09 dnr IP Pape 4 of 4 05/11/2009 ATTACHMENT B UPDATE OF KING COUNTY GROWTH TARGETS BRIEFING PAPER JUNE 2009 Washington's Growth Management Act requires local jurisdictions in King County to adopt and periodically update their comprehensive plans to accommodate 20 years of anticipated population and employment growth. In King County, the amount of growth that each city must plan for is set forth in "growth targets" that are adopted in the Countywide Planning Policies. As part of a broader review and update of the CPPs occurring through 2010, the Growth Management Planning Council (GMPC) has directed staff to develop updated growth targets for consideration and potential adoption in 2009. In King County, growth targets are policy statements indicating the minimum number of households or housing units and jobs each jurisdiction intends to accommodate during the current Growth Management planning period. The current targets, adopted in 2002, are based on Office of Financial Management (OFM) population projections along with employment forecasts produced by the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC). The county is an attractive region which, over the long term, is expected to see robust amounts of both residential and employment growth. Planning for anticipated growth is essential to maintain the vitality and livability of our region. To that end, growth targets represent a local jurisdiction commitment to accommodate a share of the region's growth through planned land uses and densities, implementing regulations, and capital facilities plans and investments. However, because land development is determined by many factors beyond local government control, the targets are not an obligation to achieve a prescribed level of growth by a certain date. In 2008, a committee of senior staff from cities throughout the county and from the county itself convened to draft updated growth targets. The "Growth Targets Committee" met monthly from July 2008 through June 2009 and developed a proposed approach, methodology, schedule, and range of numbers for a growth targets update. On April 15, 2009, the Committee recommended to GMPC an approach that addresses the following factors. Respond to GMA timelines and local planning needs. The Growth Management Act requires comprehensive plan updates every 7 years, with the next due in 2011. GMA also requires a UGA review every 10 years that addresses 20 -year growth needs. With both deadlines coming up for King County jurisdictions in the next several years, a 2009 adoption of updated growth targets ensures statutory compliance and provides cities with the information they need to plan ahead for anticipated needs. New growth targets would extend the planning period out to 2031, 20 years beyond the 2011 plan update deadline. Incorporate new population projections from OFM. Every five years, the state Office of Financial Management issues population projections for each county in the state as a basis for GMA planning. OFM released new projections in 2007, which show King County growing at a faster rate than previously forecasted and currently planned for. According to the new projections, the county is expected to grow by about 450,000 people between 2006 and 2031 to a total population of 2.3 million. The latest employment forecasts released by PSRC in 2006 show growth in the county, over this same 25 -year period, of nearly 440,000 jobs to a total of 1.7 million jobs in 2031. Implement Vision 2040 and the Multicounty Planning Policies. Vision 2040 provides substantive guidance for target allocations in each of the four PSRC counties. Vision 2040's Regional Growth Strategy and updated MPPs call for shifts in where growth locates within the region, among the counties, and to groupings of cities called "regional geographies." City- specific target numbers are to be worked out in each county. Regional policy guidance on targets is broadly consistent with current King County CPPs, including limiting rural growth, focusing growth in cities and Urban Centers, and improving jobs- housing balance. New growth targets for King County will move toward achieving the desired pattern of development called for in VISION 2040, while recognizing the long -term nature of the regional land use goals and the many challenges involved in moving away from past growth patterns. Follow a bottoms -up process that balances regional and local factors. The county and cities are addressing the growth targets update collaboratively. Every jurisdiction is expected to take a "fair share" of the growth, determined through a process that considers best available demographic, economic, and land use data, and also incorporates regional and countywide policy direction along with unique local factors and policies. Based on these factors, the Growth Targets Committee developed a methodology to convert population and employment forecasts into proposed targets totals for each of the regional geographies in the county. The results of this process are summarized in the table below. Table 1: Proposed Growth Allocations to Regional Geographies Proposed Growth Allocations 2006 2031 Regional Geography Housing Population Units Jobs Metropolitan Cities 206,100 103,000 199,700 Core Cities 139,700 72,800 166,700 Larger Cities 62,200 29,000 42,700 Small Cities 22,700 10,800 9,600 Urban Unincorporated 25,300 18,100 10,600 Rural 13,000 5,400 0 King County Total 469,000 239,100 429,300 Within each Regional Geography, staff met to develop a proposed range of draft targets for housing and jobs for each jurisdiction. Criteria that were used to inform the allocation included the following: Countywide Planning Policies, including existing adopted targets for the 2001 -2022 planning period Data from the 2007 Buildable Lands Report, including development trends and land capacity Current population, jobs and land area Location within the county, including subarea Local policies, plans, zoning and other regulations, and major development projects and proposals "Fair share" distribution of the responsibility to accommodate future growth The results of this process are shown in the tables— Proposed Housing Target Ranges and Proposed Job Target Ranges —which are attached to this memo. The tables indicate a range of potential targets for each city and unincorporated urban area. Within the range, some regional geographies may need to plan for the high or low end in order to reach the overall total for the grouping. As a point of comparison, existing targets for the 2001 -2022 planning period are also shown. These targets will be replaced by the new targets once adopted. Next Steps. The Growth Targets Committee will present draft local target ranges to the GMPC at its next meeting on July 15. The GMPC is scheduled to take action to approve final targets at its September 16 meeting. If approved by GMPC, the targets, like any other Countywide Planning Policy, must be ratified by the King County Council and by cities. Distribution of this memo and proposed target ranges is intended to further local review by cities. Staff will be providing this information to local city councils and other key decision makers. No action is required on the targets at this time, but feedback generated through the local review process is important as the Growth Targets Committee and the GMPC refine the targets proposal in the coming months. Questions about the growth targets, along with the recommended policy position, should be directed to Chandler Felt, King County Strategic Planning, at (206) 263 -9693 chandler.feltr7a kinacountv.aov, or Michael Hubner, Suburban Cities Association, at (253) 856 -5443 mhubneranci.kent.wa.us. King County Growth Targets Update Proposed Housing Target Ranges, June 2009 Local Review Draft Existing Household Allocations to Updated Plannng Targets Growth Targets Regional New Additional Housing Units (2001 -2022) Geographies (2006 -2031) Regional Geography City Subarea Metropolitan Cities Bellevue Seattle Total Core Cities Auburn Bothell Burien Federal Way Kent IGrkland Redmond Renton SeaTac Tukwila Total Larger Cities Des Moines Issaquah Kenmore Maple Valley Mercer Island Sammamish Shoreline Woodinville Total Small Cities Algona Beaux Arts Black Diamond Carnation Clyde Hill Covington Duvall Enumclaw Hunts Point Lake Forest Park Medina Milton Newcastle Normandy Park North Bend Pacific Skykomish Snoqualmie Yarrow Point Total Urban Unincorporated SeaShore South County East County Total King County UGA Total I 1 Low Mid High 1 1 i I 10,117 I 1 15,000 17,000 19,000 51510 ."'-e 88,000 86,000 84,000 61,627 I 103,00D 1 103,000 103,000 103,000 I I I I 5,928 "y- ,e,1 8,000 8,400 8,800 1,751 1% +_a 'aE;1 2,800 2,900 3,000 1,552 4.'4:'1.;4=4: 3,700 3,900 4,100 6, 188 1, 4 w 7,700 8,100 8,500 4,2841 _w {??tu' 7,400 7,800 8,200 5,4801'`•','^;- '1;*=":`i':. 6,800 7,200 7,600 9,083 ".r .S1 s .1 9,200 9,700 10,200 6,198 •'if'I 13,300 14,000 14,700 4, 478 'r,',:. ='i"< 5,500 5,800 6,100 3, 200 1:e., -4- .1 4,600 4,800 5,000 48,142 72,8001 69,000 72,600 76,200 1,576 :A. tlY ...Jj 3,993 x? >r: fa 1 2,325 300 1,437 3,842 2,651 1,869 1 17,993 29,0001 1 298 1} 'i I 3 1,099 INEMENINI 246 Meng 21 11 1,173 1,037 I 1,927 1 r, I 538 31 50 863 100 I 636 1 996 1 20 1 1,697 1 28 10,764 I 10,800 I I I 1 1,670 It 11 Aftall 18,100 1 4,935 6,801 1 13,406 1 I I 151,932 1 233,700 1 222,597 230,165 237,733 King Co. Growth Targets Committee, Growth Management Planning Council, June 2009 2,500 2,750 3,000 5,000 5,250 5,500 2,500 3,000 3,500 1,500 1,650 1,800 1,800 1,900 2,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,000 4,500 5,000 2,500 2,750 3,000 22,800 25,300 27,800 190 200 210 3 3 3 1,900 2,000 2,100 330 350 370 10 11 12 1,470 1,550 1,630 1,140 1,200 1,260 1,425 1,500 1,575 1 1 1 475 500 525 19 20 21 50 55 60 880 925 970 120 125 130 665 700 735 285 300 315 10 10 11 1,615 1,700 1,785 14 15 16 10,602 11,165 11,728 1,425 1,500 1,575 12,255 12,900 13,545 3,515 3,700 3,885 17,195 18,100 19,005 King County Growth Targets Update Proposed Job Target Ranges, June 2009 Local Review Draft Regional Geography City Subarea Metropolitan Cities Bellevue Seattle Total Core Cities Auburn Bothell Burien Federal Way Kent Kirkland Redmond Renton SeaTac Tukwila I Total Larger Cities Des Moines Issaquah Kenmore Maple Valley Mercer Island Sammamish Shoreline Woodinville Total Small Cities Algona Beaux Arts Black Diamond Carnation Clyde Hill Covington Duvall Enumclaw Hunts Point Lake Forest Park Medina Milton Newcastle Normandy Park North Bend Pacific Skykomish Snoqualmie Yarrow Point Total Urban Unincorporated SeaShore South County East County Total King County UGA Total Existing Job Allocations to Proposed Planning Targets Growth Targets Regional New Additional Jobs (2001 -2022) Geographies (2006 -2031) 40,000 1 „p*u=,;a 92,083 132,083 1 6,079 J:: ::t'A, -•I 18,200 19,200 20,200 2,000 "j 4,600 4,800 5,000 1, 712 1 r` ;a.-_ r s w; 4,400 4,600 4,800 7,481 Ir} a-r- --A- .4 11,700 12,300 12,900 11,500 1 12,500 13,200 13,900 8,800 rd`, r,r1 o 19,200 20,200 21,200 21,760 J 21,850 23,000 24,150 27,597 1': ,a, M''- z' {i4.. N 27,300 28,700 30,100 9, 288 1t r. ;J 24,000 25,300 26,600 16,000 kg, a 14,700 15,500 16,300 112,217 1 166,700 158,450 166,800 175,150 I I 1,69514," 4,000 4,500 5,000 14,000 I` 3s ttr 15,000 17,500 20,000 2,800 R-- ""i°=" 2,500 2,750 3,000 804 I' H:. ui s14i:: 1,400 1,700 2,000 800 1. „,<A 800 900 1,000 1,230,:fi 1,200 1500 1,800 2,6181_ >i.� -r. ;,031.; 4,000 4,500 5,000 2,000 e 1 W4A 1 4,000 4500 5,000 25,947 I 108 MiNtWAIMPS I 2,525 75 King Co. Growth Targets Committee, Growth Management Planning Council, June 2009 Low I Mid High 50,0001 51,500 53,000 149,700 148,200 146,700 199,700 1 199,700 199,700 199,700 42,700 32,900 37,850 42,800 190 20D 210 3 3 3 950 1,000 1,050 330 350 370 900 {y t``'' ?``1 1,200 1,250 1,320 1,125 a 0; ::1 R J 760 800 840 1,125 665 700 735 I 455 IJ:' *;•t 190 200 210 1,054 F,1 140 150 160 500 I o,,,F ra'; ,ri 1 665 700 735 6711 55 60 65 1,125 Ur r;f`.ti 950 1,000 1,050 108 1 1=c rl 330 350 370 I 1,800 1 950 1,000 1,050 r 10,967 I 9,600 I 7,378 7,763 8,168 I I 1 I 694 IMI,9 2,30D 2,400 2,500 2,582 1'' 3,500 3,700 3,900 4,637 IMERSVAgil 4,250 4,500 4,700 7,913 I 10,600 I 10,050 10,600 11,100 I I 289,127 1 429,300 1 408,478 422,713 436,918