HomeMy WebLinkAboutTrans 2012-11-19 Item 3C - SCATBd - Transportation Needs and Revenue AssumptionsPreparing for the 2013 Legislative Session - Six -Year Transportation
Needs and Revenue Assumptions for King County Jurisdictions
In preparing for the 2013 Washington Legislative Session's transportation funding
discussions, King County jurisdictions need to understand and agree on the extent of our
six -year local transportation needs and the funding gap that exists between our
transportation needs and revenues. To help prepare for this discussion, staff from the
Suburban Cities Association, Bellevue, Seattle, King County and the PSRC met during
October to develop a methodology to identify local six -year transportation needs. The
following is a summary of the Committee's initial findings. The detailed methodology
and findings were sent to your Technical Advisory Committee member for review prior
to your November 20 SCATBd meeting.
Findings:
Six -year local transportation needs categories include:
• Ongoing operations and maintenance needs, including operational and safety
projects
• Roadway preservation needs on arterials, collectors, and local access roads
• Long span bridges in need of replacement or retrofit
• Mobility projects including capital construction
Metro Transit and Ferry District needs include:
• Preservation of Metro service levels and service quality
• Metro mobility projects to expand transit to be consistent with growth and T2040
• Preservation for King County Ferry District service levels.
The Local Transportation Funding Gaps are based on the difference between the
estimated current law revenues for 2013 -2018 and estimated local transportation needs
for 2013 -2018. The estimated 2013 -2018 funding gaps are:
• Local Transportation: $4.78 billion
• Metro Transit and Ferry District: $813 million
The following Tables and Charts provide additional information on the six -year
transportation needs and revenue assumptions. In compiling this information, it became
clear to the group that jurisdictions take a variety of approaches in compiling their six
year local transportation needs and in some cased, those projected six -year needs are far
in excess of past spending on transportation. It also became clear that projections are best
looked at in aggregate, since the actual numbers for individual jurisdictions can vary
significantly for a number of very good reasons.
Next Steps:
This information will be shared with subarea boards at their November and December
meetings. The group hopes that the results will help inform continuing discussions about
revenue needs during the 2013 legislative session.
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Transportation Needs Funding Gap (does not include
Metro Transit and Ferry District)
Project Type
6-Year Need
Ongoing Operations and Maintenace
Needsl + Operational /Safety Projects2
$2 566 414 000
Preservation Needs3
$1,898,674,000
Arterials, Collectors, Local Access
Long Span Bridges4
$916,320,000
Mobility Projects2
$4,051,928,000
Total Trans • ortation Need
$9,433,336,000
Total Transportation Revenue
$4,650,446,000
Funding Gap
$4,782,890,000
1 State Auditors Report, State Auditor's Local Government Financial Reporting System
Transportation Expenditures (BARS expediture codes 542, 543, 544, 545, 546, 545)
2 Six -Year TI Ps
3 PSRC Transportation 2040 PCI Data Base
4 Bridge Sufficiency ratings from "Bridge Works"
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transportation Mobility
Needs
43%
cn
2013 to 2018 Local Transportation Needs, Revenue, and Gap
Transportation Needs
$9.43 billion
Long Span Bridges
Needs
10%
Transportation
Operations Needs
27%
Transportation
Preservation Needs
20%
Transportation
Revenue Gap
51%
Transportation Revenue & Gap
$9.43 billion
Transportation
Revenue
49%
$5,000,000,000
$4,500,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$3,500,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$500,000,000
$-
0)
Six Year (2013 -2018) Transportation Needs, Revenue, and Gap
*Transportation in this chart includes King County and its cities' transportation needs, excluding Metro Transit
and Ferry District. Metro Transit and Ferry District are separated
Transportation Transportation Long Span Bridges Transportation Transportation Transportation
Operations Needs Preservation Needs Needs Mobility Needs Revenue Revenue Gap
Total Six -Year (2013 -2018) Transportation Funding Gap
Metro Transit and Ferry District Revenue Gap
Project Type
6 -Year Need*
Preservation - Maintain current Metro
service levels and service quality **
- $75m in 2013
Sources: Transit Strategic Plan, Public Transit
Finance Plan
$497,473,000
Preservation - Preserve Ferry District
service levels
Sources: KC Marine Division Budget Data
$33,800,000
Mobility Projects - Expand Transit to be
consistent with growth and T2040 **
- $42.5 in 2013
Sources: Transit Strategic Plan, Public Transit
Finance Plan
Total 2013 -2018 Transit
Revenue Ga •
$281,901,000
$813,175,000
* Assumes inflation growth of 4% for Metro and 5% for Ferry District
** Metro Transit figures include service and capital
DRAFT
For Discussion Purposes Only
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$1,000,000,000
$500,000,000
$-
Six Year (2013 -2018) Metro Transit and Ferry District Revenue Gap
Metro Transit & Ferry District Preservation Gap
Metro Transit Mobility Gap
King County Countywide Estimated Annual Growth Rates
Percent Growth
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
0.0 °°°°°°° State /Federal Grants
Sale Tax & Other Sources
Population & Inflation
Property Tax
Local Gas Tax Distribution
19
Year
Cate • ories
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
State /Federal Grants
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Property Tax
1.76%
1.82%
1.77%
1.74%
1.74%
1.75%
1.77%
Sale Tax & Other Sources
1.46%
4.42%
3.83%
5.95%
5.89%
5.42%
4.69%
Local Gas Tax Distribution
1.10%
1.10%
1.10%
1.10%
1.10%
1.10%
1.10%
Inflation
3.00%
3.00%
3.00%
3.00%
3.00%
3.00%
3.00%
Population
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
Percent Growth
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
IIIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIII111111 I IIIIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIIIV1-IIIIIIIIIIIIII I IIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIIIV1-IIIIII111111II IIIIII111111II I IIIIIIIIIIIV1-IIIII111111I IIIIIII111111I I IIIIII111111II IIIIIIIIIIIV1-IIIIIIIIIIIIII III III111111I IIIIIIIIIIIV1-IIIIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIIIIII I IIIIIIIIIIIII
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
0.0 °°°°°°° State /Federal Grants
Sale Tax & Other Sources
Population & Inflation
Property Tax
Local Gas Tax Distribution
19