HomeMy WebLinkAboutPlanning 2017-08-24 Item 4 - Public Hearing - Comprehensive Plan: Transportation Element Update - Attachment A: Fehr & Peers MemoFEHR'' PEERS
July 28, 2017
Laura Benjamin
Associate Planner, Growth Management Planning
Puget Sound Regional Council
Ibenjamin@psrc.org
206-464-7134
Subject: City of Tukwila - Response to Comment on Assumed Land Use Growth in the
Comprehensive Plan Review
Dear Laura:
The Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) reviewed the City of Tukwila's draft Comprehensive Plan
Elements in 2013 and identified that the land use growth forecast by 2031 in the Transportation
Element was higher than current (2016) PSRC growth assumptions. PSRC's review noted that the
employment growth for the City of Tukwila is almost double the current forecast of 15,500 job
growth between 2010 and 2031.
The discrepancy in the land use growth allocation occurred because the City of Tukwila updated
the Transportation Element between 2010 and 2012, in part because of a major planned
development in the southern portion of the city that could potentially impact the long-term
transportation needs for the City. At that time, the PSRC regional land use forecasts had not yet
been adjusted to account for the magnitude of the 2008-2009 recession and resulting slowdown in
the real estate market. The other elements of the Tukwila Comprehensive Plan were updated during
the 2013-2015 period and incorporated the more recent (lower) growth forecasts from the PSRC.
In response to this comment, the City hired Fehr & Peers to reallocate land use growth to be
consistent with current PSRC Land Use Vision and to re -run the City's travel demand model. Key
findings include:
• The 2031 forecasted traffic volumes are not expected to grow as much within the City
compared to the previous analysis (VMT is lower by three percent).
• Most of the forecasted traffic volume decreases are in the Tukwila South area, where
growth is not as rapid as was previously anticipated and where most of the employment
growth was reduced.
1001 4th Avenue Suite 4120 J Seattle, WA 98154 1 (206) 576-42201 Fax (206) 576-4225
www.fehrandpeers.com
45
L. Benjamin
July 28, 2017
Page 2 of 2
• No changes are recommended to the proposed transportation capital improvement
projects. Most of the proposed transportation improvement projects are recommended
to remain as they were proposed for reasons beyond expanding capacity, including
breaking up large blocks for more walkable/bikeable neighborhoods, and filling in
missing gaps in the pedestrian and bicycle networks. The large roadway projects to
facilitate growth in Tukwila South were completed by the developer in the 2010-2012
timeframe.
Attached is a memo detailing the analysis to reallocate land use growth to be consistent with
current forecasts, as well as two maps that illustrate the distribution of household and employment
growth by 2031 within the City.
If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to give me a call at 206-576-4226.
Sincerely,
FEHR & PEERS
C's4mteAv
Carmen Kwan
Transportation Engineer/Planner
SE16-0498
Attachment:
• Tukwila 2031 Land Use Revision — Travel Demand Modeling Response to PSRC
Comments Memo
46
FEHR'j' PEERS
MEMORANDUM
Date: December 30, 2016
To: Robin Tischmak and Bob Giberson, City of Tukwila
From: Carmen Kwan and Chris Breiland, Fehr & Peers
Subject: Tukwila 2031 Land Use Revision — Travel Demand Modeling Response to PSRC
Comments
SE16-0498
The Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) reviewed the City of Tukwila's draft Comprehensive Plan
Elements in 2013 and identified that the land use growth forecast by 2031 in the Transportation
Element was higher than current PSRC growth assumptions. In response to this comment, the
forecast land use growth was revised to be consistent with PSRC assumptions and the City's travel
demand model was re -run. This document details the analysis process and summarizes the new
model results. The transportation capital improvement projects previously proposed were also
reviewed to identify if any changes in the project list would be necessary based on the new growth
forecasts.
BACKGROUND
The City of Tukwila updated the Transportation Element of the Comprehensive Plan between 2010
and 2012, in part because of a major planned development in the southern portion of the city that
could potentially impact the long-term transportation needs for the City. At that time, the PSRC
regional land use forecasts had not yet been adjusted to account for the magnitude of the 2008-
2009 recession and resulting slowdown in the real estate market nationwide. In general, the earlier
PSRC land use forecasts predicted more growth by 2031 than the current (2016) land use forecasts.
The other elements of the Tukwila Comprehensive Plan were updated during the 2013-2015 period
and incorporated the more recent (lower) growth forecasts from the PSRC. The rest of this
memorandum describes the method used to align the Transportation Element growth forecasts
with the rest of the Comprehensive Plan.
1001 4th Avenue I Suite 4120
47
Seattle, WA 98154 I (206) 576-4220
www.fehrandpeers.com
Fax (206) 576-4225
City of Tukwila
December 30, 2016
Page 2 of 5
ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
The previous analysis completed for the Transportation Element assumed a growth of 27,665 jobs
and 4,905 households by 2031. PSRC's review noted that this employment growth for the City of
Tukwila is almost double the current forecast of 15,500 job growth between 2010 and 2031. PSRC
also forecasts a slightly lower number of households in the city by 2031 (4,800 new households).
Land Use Revision
In response to these comments, the 2031 land use assumptions were revised and the City's travel
demand model was re -run to evaluate how traffic forecasts would change from the previous 2031
analysis (prepared with the higher growth forecasts). Key assumptions are listed below:
• Land use forecasts were revised to match the Land Use Vision (LUV.1) Dataset, the most
recent land use forecasts released by the PSRC in September 2015.
• Land use growth assumptions in the Southcenter Subarea of Tukwila remained relatively
consistent with the Southcenter Regional Growth Center EIS analysis prepared in 2014.
Growth was adjusted elsewhere in the City based on the LUV.1 Dataset.
A summary of the assumed land use growth is presented in Table 1. The revised 2031 forecasts
show that the land use assumptions are consistent with PSRC growth assumptions of 4,800
households and 15,500 jobs between 2010 and 2031. The revised 2031 land use has a decrease of
105 households and 14,140 jobs compared to the previous analysis. Land use growth assumptions
by TAZ are in Attachment A.
TABLE 1. CITY OF TUKWILA LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
Scenario
2013 Base Year
Revised 2031 Forecasts
Total Households and Jobs Growth from 2010
7,435 Households,
47,540 Jobs
+35 Households,
+1,970 Jobs'
12,200 Households, +4,800 Households,
61,070 Jobs +15,500 Jobs
12010 to 2013 household and job growth estimates are from PSRC's Covered Employment Estimates and Residential
Building Permit Summaries. Source: City of Tukwila, PSRC, Fehr & Peers, 2016.
48
City of Tukwila
December 30, 2016
Page 3 of 5
MODELING RESULTS
The City's travel demand model was re -run with the revised land use growth assumptions described
earlier. An example travel demand model difference plot of the change in PM peak hour traffic
volume per travel lane is shown in Figure 1. The green bars show a decrease in vehicle traffic and
the red bars show an increase in vehicle traffic compared to the previous 2031 analysis.
FIGURE 1. 2031TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL DIFFERENCE PLOT
Source: Fehr & Peers, 2016.
49
City of Tukwila
December 30, 2016
Page 4 of 5
While there is some model "noise" in the difference plot results where some routes have minor
increase or decrease in vehicle volumes compared to before, the overall observations from the new
travel model runs are summarized below.
• The 2031 forecasted traffic volumes are not expected to grow as much within the City
of Tukwila compared to the previous analysis. The slightly lower vehicle traffic growth
is reasonable based on the reduction of approximately 14,100 jobs and 100 households
throughout the City by 2031 compared to the previous analysis. The new 2031 model run's
slightly lower traffic growth is minor as there is only a three percent decrease in vehicle -
miles -travelled (VMT) on City streets during the PM period compared to the previous
analysis (excluding freeways).
• Most of the forecasted traffic volume decreases are south of S 180th Street. This is
expected as the growth near Southcenter Regional Growth Center did not change much
from the earlier analysis, and most of the employment reduction was in the Tukwila South
area, where growth is not as rapid as was anticipated in the earlier forecasts. Overall, City
staff felt this area had the least amount of momentum for growth compared to the rest of
the City.
• No changes are recommended to the proposed transportation capital improvement
projects. A review of the previously recommended projects was completed based on the
new model run results. In general, all the projects identified in the Transportation Element
are recommended to remain because:
o Most of the street extension projects were recommended to reduce block size and
improve mobility for all modes. These projects would improve street grid
connectivity, improve the walkability by breaking up large blocks, and potentially
improve emergency response times. While there is a minor decrease in vehicle
volumes in the new model run compared to the previous results, projects are
recommended to remain to help the City achieve the desired urban form and street
network connectivity pattern.
o Intersection improvements at various intersections such as adding turn pockets are
still recommended as the model shows that turning volumes that triggered the
additional turn lanes will not decrease enough to eliminate the need for the
additional lanes.
o Many projects were identified to enhance pedestrian and/or bicycle facilities. While
growth is slightly lower with the new land use forecasts, the need for a
50
City of Tukwila
December 30, 2016
Page 5 of 5
comprehensive and connective pedestrian and bicycle network is not altered by
the revised land use forecasts.
CONCLUSION
A new travel model run was completed with revised 2031 land use growth reallocated to be
consistent with PSRC's vision of 15,500 new jobs and 4,800 new households between 2010 and
2031 in Tukwila. Based on the results of the new travel model run, no changes to the Transportation
Element project list are recommended. While the traffic growth by 2031 is not expected to be as
high as the previous analysis (VMT is lower by three percent), most of the proposed transportation
improvement projects are recommended to remain as they were proposed for reasons beyond
expanding capacity, including breaking up large blocks for more walkable/bikeable neighborhoods,
and filling in missing gaps in the pedestrian and bicycle networks.
Attachment:
Attachment A: Land Use Totals by TAZ & TAZ Map
51
Attachment A: Land Use Assumptions and TAZ Map
Revised City of Tukwila Travel Demand Model Land Use
New 2031 Revision
City of Tukwila
Households
Employment
2013 Base Year
7,435
47,540
Old 2031 Land Use
12,340
75,205
Previous 2013 - 2031 Growth
4,905
27,665
New 2031 Revision
12,200
61,070
2010 - 2013 Growth
(PSRC Estimates)
35
1,970
2013 - 2030 Growth
4,765
13,530
2010 - 2030 Total Growth
4,800
15,500
52
2013 Base Year
2031 Land Use Revision Consistent
with PSRC Land Use Vision
Old 2031 Land Use
TOTALS
7,435
47,540
12,200
61,070
12,340
75,205
Subarea
TAZ
HH
EMP
Total HH
Total EMP
Total HH
Total EMP
x
1
0
6,166
217
7,754
224
7,754
x
2
0
734
136
866
140
866
x
3
0
294
136
426
140
426
x
4
0
943
295
984
305
984
x
5
0
518
155
801
160
801
x
6
0
378
143
528
148
528
x
7
0
749
302
1,219
312
1,219
x
8
0
551
229
592
236
592
x
9
0
931
143
1,607
148
1,607
x
10
0
1,004
143
1,276
148
1,276
x
11
0
550
0
618
0
618
x
12
0
1,063
0
1,131
0
1,131
x
13
2
702
0
1,106
0
1,106
x
14
0
1,172
0
1,645
0
1,645
x
15
0
559
0
626
0
626
x
16
0
271
0
339
0
339
x
17
0
604
0
672
0
672
x
18
0
1,139
0
1,206
0
1,206
19
1
316
1
367
21
551
x
20
2
181
332
270
343
270
x
21
0
248
291
278
300
278
x
22
0
255
192
358
198
358
23
3
928
0
1,088
3
1,152
x
24
0
713
0
781
0
781
25
0
1,100
0
1,328
0
1,325
26
1
1,115
1
1,165
113
3,552
27
4
86
52
603
113
3,552
28
113
525
156
531
156
596
29
1,080
111
1,107
144
1,104
270
30
563
281
596
282
596
281
31
0
781
12
915
12
940
32
8
950
8
1,108
8
1,335
33
88
128
100
287
100
353
34
558
370
588
371
588
529
35
132
5
228
6
200
5
36
224
56
234
56
224
56
52
53
37
5
0
83
0
68
0
38
127
6
205
17
188
6
39
214
252
273
489
252
472
40
353
13
353
13
384
93
41
271
188
323
188
304
268
42
162
75
225
199
212
184
43
95
49
132
81
124
78
44
35
7
102
13
96
7
45
66
6
136
12
128
6
46
475
36
540
41
508
36
47
18
239
34
314
32
311
48
123
267
192
537
168
518
49
279
141
299
176
308
170
50
85
8
179
8
148
8
51
158
18
216
18
192
18
52
149
150
169
170
176
179
53
114
42
149
161
164
151
54
89
40
148
44
152
40
55
98
18
184
18
160
18
56
158
17
224
194
200
247
57
188
58
222
105
216
221
58
64
2
120
3
128
2
59
158
22
201
35
220
22
60
20
721
20
949
20
945
61
34
12
116
12
96
12
62
112
4
222
4
184
4
63
77
234
102
315
100
306
64
104
52
119
52
116
92
65
71
135
81
333
100
389
66
0
3,125
0
3,365
0
3,351
67
392
274
414
275
404
277
68
0
0
0
0
0
0
69
109
1
140
2
172
1
70
128
4
156
4
152
4
71
41
5
107
12
104
5
72
13
35
78
35
76
35
73
0
250
0
860
0
1,200
74
15
2,341
13
2,391
15
2,381
75
10
1,582
9
1,825
10
2,532
76
13
101
12
308
13
327
77
0
807
0
850
0
847
78
0
2,540
0
3,444
0
3,490
79
0
213
0
213
0
394
80
0
500
0
502
0
500
81
0
361
0
958
0
1,312
83
17
6,110
17
6,976
17
7,061
103
16
2
52
607
113
3,552
104
0
0
34
605
78
3,552
53
Lake
Washington
63
132nd St
62
61
LEGEND
Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)
l___' City of Tukwila
rr Potential Annexation Area
N
NOT TO SCALE
FEHR k' PERS
\Vpse2ldata2\2010Projects\SE10-0181.00_Tukwila_TransElement\ Graphics \GIS\MXD\figA1_TAZ_appendix.mxd
CITY OF TUKWILA -
TRANSPORTATION AREA ZONE (TAZ) MAP
FIGURE A-1
54
Revised Map 13-1: Projected Household Growth
55
Projected
Household
Growth by
Traffic
Analysis
Zone
2010-2031
Legend
L_.ity Limits
Household Growth
0-15
16-50
51 - 100
101 - 200
201 and abve
Page 13-5
Revised Map 13-2: Projected Employment Growth
Projected
Employment
Growth by
Traffic
Analysis
Zone
2010-2031
Legend
Employment Growth
0-50
51 - 100
101-200
201 - 450
451 and above
Page 13-6 56