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Home My WebLink AboutPCD 2021-03-01 Item 1B - Discussion - King County Growth Targets and Buildable Landsof Tukwila Allan Ekberg, Mayor INFORMATIONAL MEMORANDUM TO: Planning & Community Development Committee FROM: Minnie Dhaliwal, Deputy DCD Director BY: Jaimie Reavis CC: Mayor Ekberg DATE: March 1, 2021 SUBJECT: Buildable Lands Analysis and Growth Targets ISSUE The Committee of the Whole received a briefing from King County and staff in January 2021 on the process of setting growth targets for the next round of comprehensive plan updates in 2023- 2024. This memo provides more details on the Buildable Lands Analysis for Tukwila, and what it shows in terms of Tukwila's capacity to receive development that will accommodate growth targets for housing units and jobs. BACKGROUND A. Buildable Lands Analysis: Cities coordinate with each other and with King County on an eight-year cycle to implement the Growth Management Act. As part of this cycle, King County updates the Countywide Planning Policies (CPPs) to set up a framework for planning coordination among cities and the region. King County is currently updating the CPPs in preparation for Comprehensive Plan updates cities will be required to do in 2023-2024. CPPB BUILDABLE LANDS PERIODIC COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE PERIODIC COMPREHENSIVE BUILDABLE LANDS REPORT PERIODIC COMPREHENSIVE PLAN DEADLINE 1 * 1 f 1 DUE JUNE 33. 2027 PLAN DEADLINE I 1 * 1 1 * 1 I i,Wl <1777 iSr i :±,i4 ;11>1 OFM populefron OFM population projections prpjectione As part of the continuous eight-year update process, state law (RCW 36.70A.115) requires counties and cities to "ensure that, taken collectively, adoption of and amendments to their comprehensive plans and/or development regulations provide sufficient capacity of land suitable for development within their jurisdictions to accommodate their allocated housing and employment growth, as adopted in the applicable countywide planning policies and consistent with the twenty-year population forecast from the office of financial management." The way that this is done is through a review and evaluation program outlined in RCW 36.70A.215, which has come to be referred to as "buildable lands." King County works with cities to provide guidance on how to complete the buildable lands analysis to ensure that cities within King County use a consistent methodology. From late 2018 through late 2020, cities around the county have been completing three phases of data collection and reporting for the latest buildable lands report. 3 INFORMATIONAL MEMO Page 2 The three phases include: Phase 1: Measurement of achieved density of residential and commercial development from 2012-2018. Phase 2: Analysis of planned density and land supply. Phase 3: Applying achieved or assumed density to vacant and redevelopable land to measure capacity for future development. The data reported to King County on available land supply for new households and jobs factors into the growth target setting process. B. Growth Target: Growth targets are a policy statement about the amount of housing and jobs each jurisdiction will plan for in the 2024 Comprehensive Plan. These are part of the Countywide Planning Policies that are adopted by King County Council for the next 20 -year period. To determine the number of housing units and jobs the county should plan for over the next 20 years, King County uses population projections from the Office of Financial Management and an economic forecast from the Puget Sound Regional Council. The Regional Growth Strategy in the PSRC's Vision 2050 plan also guides the amount of growth apportioned to King County, as well as to regional geographies within King County. Within regional geographies, cities and King County collaboratively determine targets for each jurisdiction, relative to the amount of capacity, presence of growth centers, and high-capacity transit within cities. Based on the forecasts, the population growth for the Puget Sound Region for 2019-2044 period is anticipated to be approximately 1.3 million and job growth projection is 884,450 jobs. King County is expected to take approximately 50 percent of this growth. There are a total of 10 core cities in King County and collectively these core cities are expected to plan for 112,850 housing units and 222,800 jobs. DISCUSSION Previous Targets and Development Trends Housing and jobs targets for the 2015-2035 time -period used in the 2015 Tukwila Comprehensive Plan update were as follows: Existing Housing Existing Job Target Target (2015-2035) (2015-2035) 5,626 20,358 4 INFORMATIONAL MEMO Page 3 From 2015- 2020, a total of 846 housing units were constructed in Tukwila. The graph at right shows total numbers of existing housing units in Tukwila, as reported to the Office of Financial Management. The sharp rise in number of units from 2018-2020 reflects new multifamily developments in the Tukwila Urban Center and the Tukwila International. Blvd. corridor. 8800 8600 • 8400 • 8200 8000 0 = 7800 ▪ 7600 7400 7200 7755 7726 7733 7740 7761 7779 7799 7833 8625 8445 y�, Otiti Q>. Oti3 OyR Oyu Osco Oy1 Oy`b Oy�i OLO do ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti Yearly Postcensal Estimate of Total Housing Units The current buildable lands analysis shows that the City has capacity for the following (taking into consideration critical areas and zoninal: Current Housing Unit Capacity Current Job Capacity 7,255 20,550 Growth Target Setting The Target Baselines for each City have been developed by King County for the planning period of 2019-2044. King County ran different housing and jobs target scenarios for each city, assigning targets proportionally to each city in the county based on factors including number of housing units constructed in 2012-2018 as a proportion of the total within the county, number of existing housing units, number of jobs, etc. The ranges shown below represent the low and high values that resulted for the number of housing units and jobs in Tukwila. King County then took an average of the values to determine each city's baseline. The cities are now in the process of negotiating with each other to take more or Tess of the target, based on local knowledge of the economic and political environment. At this time there are still 3,200 housing units that need to be allocated, and most cities have tentatively agreed to take proportional share of additional housing units. Target Baselines Housing Jobs Range: 2,104 — 10,062 Range: 2,951 — 24,011 Baseline: 5,612 (up to 6,500) Baseline: 14,760 For Tukwila to achieve the growth target of 6,500 housing units, an average of 260 units per year would need to be constructed over the 25 -year time -period. Continuation of the type of development that has occurred recently in the Tukwila Urban Center (Airmark Apartments, Marvelle) and along the TIB Corridor (Tukwila Village, Bellwether) would make achieving the target feasible. The pie chart on the next page provides information on the relative amount of capacity that exists in Tukwila zoning districts. 5 INFORMATIONAL MEMO Page 4 Capacity for Housing Units in Tukwila Zoning Districts poi MDR 3D HDR 4% MUO 1% -�.RC PNCC 8% RCC 6% 0% ■LDR ■MDR ■HDR MUO ■RC ■NCC ■RCC ■TUC ■TVS Capacity for non-residential development is more difficult to estimate. Tukwila has the capacity to build approximately 9,790,000 square feet in which new jobs would be located. Recent commercial and industrial development in Tukwila has tended to be warehouse development or one-story retail development. These have a very high square footage per job compared to office buildings. Using the high square footage per job average of 700 square feet, approximately 14,000 jobs would be able to be accommodated in the amount of square feet of capacity in Tukwila. Many of the other cities in the region have requested a lower jobs target than the baseline. King County will continue to work on finalizing the housing and jobs targets, which will be reviewed by the Growth Management Planning Council and adopted by the King County Council as part adoption of the Countywide Planning Policies. FINANCIAL IMPACT None. RECOMMENDATION Staff is recommending approval of the baseline numbers and requesting committee approval. 6