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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSpecial 2012-08-08 COMPLETE AGENDA PACKETTO: INTEROFFICE MEMORANDUM City Council Members Mayor Haggerton David Cline Mike Villa (acting City Administrator) Kimberly Matej FROM: Joyce Trantina DATE: August 6, 2012 SUBJ: Strategic Planning - Council Workshop August 8, 2012 Tukwila Community Center, Arts Room A 6:00 — 8:00 p.m. (a light meal will be provided) Attached are the following materials for August 8th Special Work Session: • Discussion Guide • Planning Process & Input Overview • Community and Staff Engagement Framework • Outline of Upcoming Steering Committee Topical Discussions • Fiscal Baseline Assessment - DRAFT • Demographic and Economic Profile - DRAFT Please note that the Fiscal Baseline Assessment and Demographic/Economic Profile are DRAFT documents and not intended for distribution. They are preliminary draft copies and subject to change throughout the course of the data collection/analysis process. Please review this information prior to our discussion Wednesday night. Brian and Dawn will share updates and input from the various committees and lead the group in a lively discussion. See you then! CITY OF TUKWILA STRATEGIC PLAN City Council Work Session August 8, 2012 1 6:00 - 8:00 pm DISCUSSION GUIDE Meeting Purpose Review project status and insights to date Discuss key strategic planning topics 1) Review Project Status & Community Engagement to Date See supporting documents: o Process and Input Overview o Community and Staff Engagement Framework 2) Discuss Key Strategic Planning Topics See supporting document: Outline of Key Topics Review plan to bring these topics forward to Staff and Steering Committees Discuss: o Are these the right topics? o Do any important issues not have a "home" in upcoming topical discussions? o What is the right level of elevation for the Strategic Plan to address these issues? :111 BERK 1 2 City of Tukwila STRATEGIC PLAN 2012 Demographic & Economic Profile Fiscal Baseline Assessment 0.) Last Updated 7/25/12 PLANNING PROCESS & INPUT OVERVIEW VISIONING & ISSUE IDENTIFICATION PRIORITIZATION & DRAFT PLAN DEVELOPMENT City of Tukwila STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Connecting to the Future REVISION & ADOPTION Leadership Perspectives City Council, Project Management Team, Executive Team Topics & Ideas Community Input O&O Website & Survey © Diverse Communities Forum O Events & Meetings O Stakeholder Interviews O Targeted Engagements Staff Input © Staff Survey © Staff Meetings Draft Plan Community Input O&O Website & Survey O Community Open House O Events & Meetings O Targeted Engagements Staff Input © Staff Feedback Final Plan -P Targeted Engagements: see sign up sheet L J J City of Tukwila STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN 2012 BROAD TARGETED Cri Updated 8/6/12 COMMUNITY & STAFF ENGAGEMENT FRAMEWORK PRIORITIZATION & DRAFT PLAN DEVELOPMENT REVISION/ADOPTION VISIONING/ISSUE IDENTIFICATION Project Website (www.tukwilawa.gov/strategicplan.html) & Best@/Worst@Tukwilawa.gov OWeb -Based Community Survey City of Tukwila STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN iiiiiilolair i Connecting to the Future ODiverse Communities Forum L Events and Meetings: see sign up sheet O Staff Survey OStakeholder Interviews OCouncil Briefing & Interviews O Council Worksession CCommunity Feedback cI:: Open House Staff Meetings O Staff Meeting OCouncil Review of Draft 111 0) CITY OF TUKWILA STRATEGIC PLAN Outline of Upcoming Steering Committee Topical Discussions, 8/6/2012 Categories Issues Tools & Levers The Tukwila Community Built Environment Public Safety: Police, Fire, & Public Works Economic Vitality City of Tukwila s1 udl Eflf, aCilbx PI aN Connecting to the future City Governance & Management Community cohesion and internal identity; strengthening of social networks Increasing resident stability Image and marketing Livability and attractiveness Assistance for populations living in poverty or with other specific needs The City's communication and engagement with communities from other cultures and who speak other languages Equal awareness of and access to City services Educational opportunities Health and healthy lifestyles Level of service provision Land use policies Capital and infrastructure projects Special initiatives Tax polices Communications efforts Partnerships Improvements and efficiencies in current service provision Many others.... Overall neighborhood quality: what makes a quality neighborhood? Housing: availability, quality, residential capacity Transportation and motorized and non - motorized connections Neighborhood walkability (safety and availability of destinations as well as bike/pedestrian routes) Physical appearance of the community Historic preservation Natural environment Other? Crime reduction Proactive crime prevention efforts Public safety communications and engagement with the community Efficient provision of fire, police, and EMS services Public works o Broadband access o Other large potential investments o Ongoing maintenance and sustainability Other? Retail tax base Employment base, including employment opportunities for residential population Business climate Specific geographic areas and/or development patterns Engagement with and of business community Regional draw/connections: freeways, airports, tourism assets Image and marketing Other? Mission Statement Clarity around who we serve: residents, businesses, and other visitors and users of City services The City's role in the region Fiscal sustainability of the City Policy and budget setting process Performance management Organizational learning and advancement Internal communications City facilities Partnerships Other? :111 BERK 8 CITY OF TUKWILA STRATEGIC PLAN Fiscal Baseline Assessment Review Draft June 22, 2012: Not for Circulation City of Tukwila STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Connecting to the future INTRODUCTION This purpose of this fiscal analysis is to provide high level fiscal context for the City's strategic planning effort. This analysis describes how the City's fiscal future might look based on the current state of the City, recent historical trends, and likely future growth and development if no significant changes are made to the City's tax base and service delivery policies. In that sense is it is a no -action scenario indicating what would happen if the City took no measures to more actively manage its financial position. Given Washington State's tax structure, cities across the state face a structural challenge in which their costs are increasing at a faster pace than their revenues. Therefore, the forecast for any city in the State would likely indicate that at some point in the future the city's expenses will exceed its revenues. The important questions are not whether this will happen, but when, with more fiscally healthy cities not facing this challenge for some period of time, and what measures a city will take to balance its revenues and expenditures. This analysis includes two separate forecasts to account for the uncertainty around the future development of the Tukwila South Project, which will significantly impact the City once it develops. 1. Baseline Forecast. This look -ahead presents the baseline outlook for the City, estimating how its core operating costs and revenues will likely evolve from its existing base. This baseline forecast does not include development of the Tukwila South Project, but does include other known changes coming up for Tukwila: a. Two upcoming annexations, including one small area through an interlocal agreement and the larger North Highline area. While these annexations are not certain, they will have minimal impacts on the City's future fiscal situation whether or not they occur. b. Development of Tukwila Village. The Tukwila Village Project is on schedule to be developed within the next few years, with the first phase open by the end of 2014 and the second phase open by the end of 2015. The baseline forecast includes the projected cost and revenue impacts of this project. Impacts of the Tukwila South Project. This look -ahead estimates how the planned buildout of the Tukwila South Project would change the City's core operating costs and revenues over time. Given the uncertainty surrounding the timing of this development, this analysis presents a few different development scenarios. This analysis is based on the 2008 study conducted for Segale Properties, and has been updated to current dollars and to reflect changes in the City's tax policies. Additional notes: The fiscal analysis is based on 2012 budgeted expenditures, revenues, and tax and fee structures, as provided by the City's Finance Department. This paper isolates Tukwila's core operating costs and revenues — the components of the City's budget that are funded through general tax and fee revenues through the General Fund. This analysis does not include utility enterprise funds or funds used primarily for capital. :iii BERK 1 9 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment FISCAL BALANCE FRAMEWORK A city's long-term fiscal sustainability challenge is to balance land use, fiscal policies, and effective delivery of municipal services. The graphic in Exhibit 1 represents our approach to land-based fiscal analysis. Factors in the land base such as population, employment, and commercial activity drive both the demand for services and the tax base in the model. Exhibit 1 — Description of our Land -Based Fiscal Analysis Approach LAND BASE (City) Identify vacant and redevelopable land based on parcel -level review of zoning, land use and current values. Scenarios based on % of maximum buildout, pace of growth, and redevelopment intensity COMMERCIAL Square Footage, Type, Scale, Timing, Tenant Mix Employment New Retail Activity RESIDENTIAL Housing Mix, Type and Density Housing Units Population TAX BASE Assessed Value Taxable Retail Sales Business Income Utility Usage Population -based Employment -based Development -related Other Set Tax and Fee Policies REVENUES Estimate service demand based on population growth (police, fire, parks, public works, etc.) Estimate required FTEs and personnel costs Estimate non -personnel costs Set Level -of -Service Policy SERVICE COSTS NET FISCAL IMPACT J BASELINE FORECASTS Note: The forecasts in this section include likely upcoming annexations and development of Tukwila Village. They do not include impacts from possible development of the Tukwila South Project, which are addressed beginning on page 8. Below, we describe the following key assumptions that drive the model: 1. Baseline Population and Employment Growth 2. Baseline Development Assumptions 3. Baseline Budget Assumptions 10 Review Draft 6/22/12 — Not for Circulation 2 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment 1. Baseline Population and Employment Growth The population growth rate serves as a primary driver for revenue and cost estimates for the City going forward. The employment growth rate, in combination with the population growth rate, drives revenues related to business licenses and utility taxes, among other drivers. Population and employment growth rates in the model are based on development assumptions and are similar to Puget Sound Regional Council's (PSRC) estimated population growth for the City from 2010-30. 30,000 25,000 20,000 0 g 15,000 0 0. 10,000 5,000 0 Exhibit 2 — Historical and Projected Baseline Population —6—Historical Population Estimated Future Population 00 90 00 00 ^O ,�h ,10 r1' .y0 ,t0 ,10 r10 ,10 ,10 ,10 ,11' Source: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2012; and BERK, 2012. Since 1990, the City of Tukwila's annual average population growth (without annexations) was about 0.9%. Development and growth assumptions yield an estimated average annual growth rate of about 1.1% for the 20 -year period from 2012-31. Estimated employment growth over the next 20 years is also estimated to average about 1.0% per year. 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Exhibit 3 — Projected Baseline Population and Employment • Permanent Population ❑Employment 111 Source: BERK, 2012. Review Draft 6/22/12 — Not for Circulation 3 11 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment 2. Baseline Development Assumptions Buildout assumptions have been chosen to calibrate with PSRC's population and employment forecasts as well as historic development trends and permit activity in the City of Tukwila. The model allows the flexibility to test the fiscal impact of alternative development assumptions, including more or less total development, type of development, and timing of development if the City would like to understand how different scenarios would impact its future fiscal situation. Development capacity assumptions are based on the King County Buildable Lands Report, last updated in 2007: o Residential unit capacity is estimated directly in the report. o Commercial capacity is estimated as land area, which is converted to building capacity using Floor to Area ratios (FAR) of 0.33 for commercial and 0.57 for industrial. These FAR are based on realized FAR from 1996-2005. Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 5 summarize the development projections being used for the baseline fiscal analysis. By 2033, the analysis assumes that about 95% of single-family (SF) housing capacity and 50% of multi- family (MF) housing capacity will be developed. This results in an average of slightly over 50 units per year of each type. By 2033, this analysis assumes that about 70% of available commercial capacity and 80% of available industrial capacity will be developed, resulting in 66,000 new square feet of commercial space per year and about 225,000 new square feet of industrial space annually. Exhibit 4 — Baseline Housing Unit Capacity and Assumed Pace of Development (Excluding potential development of Tukwila South) Total HU %Buildout HU Added Avg Units per Capacity at 2033 through 2033 Year* Baseline Forecasts SF Housing Units 1,200 95% 1,100 50 MF Housing Units 1,600 50% 800 55 * MF Housing Units per Year includes development of Tukwila Village apartments. Source: King County Buildable Lands Report, 2007; and BERK analysis, 2012. Exhibit 5 — Baseline Commercial and Industrial Building Capacity and Assumed Pace of Development (Excluding potential development of Tukwila South) Total % Buildout SF Added Avg SF % Distribution Capacity (SF) at 2033 through 2033 per Year (commercial) Baseline Commercial Retail 1,414,000 70% 990,000 45,000 70% Office 505,000 70% 353,000 17,000 25% Other Commercial 101,000 70% 71,000 3,000 5% Total Commercial 2,020,000 70% 1,414,000 66,000 100% Baseline Industrial Industrial 6,173,000 80% 4,939,000 224,000 N/A Source: King County Buildable Lands Report, 2007; and BERK analysis, 2012. 12 Review Draft 6/22/12 - Not for Circulation 4 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment 3. 2012 Budget Sources and Uses Exhibit 6 summarizes the City's budgeted 2012 General Fund revenues and expenditures. The Baseline Projections on the following page are based on these 2012 budget numbers and projected forward using estimated future population, employment, and commercial activity and the City's current tax structure. Exhibit 6 - Summary of 2012 Budgeted General Fund Revenues and Expenditures (millions of dollars) Revenues Expenditures Revenue Source 2012 Budget Expenditures by Department 2012 Budget Amount Amount Property Tax Retail Sales and Use Tax State Sales Tax Mitigation Natural Gas Use Tax Criminal Justice Sales Tax Utility Taxes Admissions Tax Other Taxes (excise, penalties, etc.) 13.87 14.41 1.20 0.28 0.36 6.36 0.65 2.64 Total Taxes 39.78 Business Licenses and Permits Building Permits and Fees Total Licenses & Permits General Government Security Engineering Services Transportation Plan Check and Review Fees Culture and Rec Fees 2.78 1.10 3.88 0.06 0.51 0.06 0.16 0.86 0.61 Total Charges for Service Fines and Penalties Intergovernmental Miscellaneous Transfers -In 2.26 0.21 2.86 1.90 1.87 TOTAL REVENUES AND TRANSFERS 52.77 Source: City of Tukwila 2011-2012 Adopted Budget; BERK, 2012. Review Draft 6/22/12 - Not for Circulation City Council Mayor's Office Human Resources Finance Legal Parks & Recreation Community Development Court Police Fire Information Technology Public Works Parks Maintenance PW Street Maintenance Non -Departmental 0.27 2.52 0.57 1.60 0.54 2.53 2.68 0.99 14.06 10.23 1.15 3.61 0.94 2.68 8.00 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 52.39 5 13 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment Baseline Projections of Revenues and Expenditures Exhibit 7 City Core Revenues Over Time (in 2012 dollars) Exhibit 8 City Core Expenses Over Time (in 2012 dollars) $70 M 2007-2011 Actual and 2012 Budgeted 160 M $50 M $40 M $30 M 020 M $10 M $e M $70 M $60 M $50 M $40 $30 M $20 M $10 M $0 M •Core Expenditures Core Resources Other Revenues Utility Taxes 01 OB 00 O 0 ti A ti0 b y 6 .1.°4‘ ry0 �O M1O Building Permit, Planning and Engineering Fees Property Tax 'le titi0 ry0 M1O ry0 ry0 ry0 ti0 n'S tiOryo- ryo,10 ryO.a 4,1 ry0.,0 ry0.,0 ryO,y 2007-2011 Actual and 2012 Budgeted r. - .Core Expenditures —Core Resources 0 FTEs ti0 ,•�• • Other Operating Costs • Personnel Costs (Salaries 8 Benefits) 350 300 250 200 From 2007-11, General Fund revenues grew by just less than 2.0% annually when adjusted for inflation. o Sales tax revenue declined from 2007-10, but increased in 2011 and is expected to grow going forward. o Sales tax revenue has been impacted over the last few years by destination -based sales tax policies (sales tax streamlining), the economic recession, and changes in exemptions at the state level. Sales tax mitigation from the move to destination -based sales tax began at the end of 2008. o The City helped make up for losses in sales tax and other revenues affected by the recession by raising existing utility taxes and instituting interfund utility taxes. Without these increases in utility taxes, revenue growth would have only been about 1.4% o Going forward, property taxes will continue to be limited by Initiative 747, which restricts growth to 1% plus the addition of new construction. There will likely be a one-time bump in sales tax from new construction for Tukwila Village in 2014-15. The City's personnel costs going forward are estimated to grow slightly faster than the rate of inflation. The City is in a relatively good position compared to other cities; since it is self-insured it can help control the cost of rapidly increasing healthcare that has seen benefit rates skyrocket in recent years in most cities. 14 Review Draft 6/22/12 — Not for Circulation 6 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment Net Baseline Projections Assuming no changes in fiscal policies, Tukwila is expected to face budget deficits in the coming years. This finding is consistent with most other cities in Washington State, and is related to a structural imbalance between the way that costs and revenues are able to grow. Much of the this imbalance is related to the limits of Initiative 747, which caps growth in property tax revenues at 1% per year, plus revenue from new construction. With this major revenue source capped at 1% increase per year, and with costs that tend to escalate at levels at least equivalent to inflation, cities across the state are facing the reality of costs that grow faster than their revenues. To address this challenge, local governments must make tough choices involving either increases in revenues, cuts in costs, or both to maintain fiscal balance. Exhibit 9 shows the future outlook for Tukwila. $140M $120M $100M $80M $60M $40M $20M t I Exhibit 9 Net Fiscal Baseline (in year of expenditure dollars) =Total Operating Revenues Total Operating Costs —o—Annual Operating surplus/(deficit) --1 - $0M -20M L - tet Oji iiL. L�}IJ-i NI' O^. ONt. N6 O<1/4 O^O ONO OHO O�� e e e Ory a O,f� OHO OHO OHO Off^ ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti Note: revenues and costs do not include beginning or ending General Fund balance. Core operating cost growth is estimated to outpace revenue growth over the long-term, resulting in a deficit within the next five years if the City does not make changes to revenue policy or levels of service. From 2007-11, core revenues increased at about 5.0% per year. Future projections estimate annual revenue growth of about 3.75%. From 2007-11, core expenditures increased by about 7.5% per year. Future projections estimate annual cost growth of about 4.1%. Review Draft 6/22/12 — Not for Circulation 7 15 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment TUKWII..-A. SOUTH IMPACTS The Tukwila South Project will encompass about 500 acres of land along the Green River at the south end of the City. The project is likely to add about 10 million square feet of occupied space, including a mix of office space, residential, retail, and hotel. The development timeline for Tukwila South is currently uncertain due to many factors, including: Length of time it will take to complete the cut and fill process and infrastructure improvements that will make the site ready for build. The state of the economy: how quickly the economy recovers will dictate when there will be new demand for large-scale development. Potential FEMA regulations that will reduce the total buildable area of the Tukwila South site as it relates to the Green River flood plain. A project of this magnitude will significantly alter the tax base and cost structure of the City, and increase population and employment projections. Fiscal Impact of Development A full analysis of the impacts of Tukwila South was not within the purview of the strategic planning process. Instead, this analysis provides an update of a thorough cost and revenue analysis completed by BERK for Segale Properties in 2005, with updates in 2008. Key assumptions include: The project will include about 10.3 million square feet (sf) of development, including 8.6 million sf of commercial space and 1.7 million sf of residential. o Commercial development will include research and office space, retail, restaurants, and hotels. o Residential development will include condominiums and apartments. At full buildout, the project would support about 3,200 additional residents and 23,000 additional jobs. This analysis presents two scenarios: one where development begins five years from now (2017) and one where it begins ten years from now (2022) to provide a range of impacts that this project could have on the City. o Phasing assumptions used in the original analysis assume a full development timeline of approximately 30 years once construction begins, with development spread fairly evenly over the first 20 years and then slowing down for the final 10. To support the strategic planning process, this analysis summarizes the potential revenue and cost findings from the previous Tukwila South study, updated for 2012 dollars and for a more realistic timeline. 16 Review Draft 6/22/12 — Not for Circulation 8 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Exhibit 10 — Estimated Future Population and Employment (assuming Tukwila South begins construction in 2017) ❑ Employment - TSP 2017 • Employment - TSP 2022 • Employment - Baseline ❑ Population - TSP 2017 • Population - TSP 2022 • Population - Baseline 1 1 1 1 1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 If Tukwila South construction began in 2017, it would add approximately 2,000 new residents and 9,500 new jobs by 2031. If Tukwila South construction began in 2022, it would add approximately 1,700 new residents and 4,500 new jobs by 2031. $140 M $120 M $100 M $80 M $60 M $40 M $20 M $0 M -$20 M Exhibit 11 — Estimated Net Fiscal Impact including Tukwila South =Revenues TSP 2017 =Revenues TSP 2022 Revenues- Baseline =Costs - TSP 2017 Costs - TSP 2022 Costs - Baseline —a—Net- TSP 2017 —0—Net TSP 2022 —0—Net - Baseline 1 4 0 0 c 0 Source: City of Tukwila, 2008; BERK, 2012. Review Draft 6/22/12 — Not for Circulation 9 17 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Fiscal Baseline Assessment In the long-term, the revenues from Tukwila South will outweigh the operating costs to the City and provide a net operating surplus. o While there will be larger start-up costs at the beginning of the project that will not be fully covered by increased taxes, the Developer Agreement will require the developer to pay the City to mitigate any deficits, thus rendering the short-term impact neutral. o The project will begin to have a net benefit to the City's operating costs and revenues about 5 years after construction starts. The project may also generate capital costs to the City. These costs could be covered by the additional Real Estate Excise Tax generated from property sales within the development, as well as bonding against future revenue increases. FISCAL POLICY OPTION' This baseline estimates the City's future fiscal health under a "no action" scenario. In reality, the City has many choices and policy levers at its disposal to balance expenditures and revenues. A focus of the strategic planning effort will be to explore tradeoffs, priorities, and policy choices that fall in the following broad categories: Revenue -focused strategies o Economic development. o Taxes, fees, and other revenue -generating tools. Cost -focused strategies o Increased efficiency of operations (cost containment). o Strategies to keep personnel cost growth in line with inflation over time. o Decreases in level of service. In addition to these options, the City has many options to reprioritize spending by shifting General Fund resources among the uses shown in Exhibit 6. 18 Review Draft 6/22/12 — Not for Circulation 10 City of ilib......._ Tukwila STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN Connecting to the future Review Draft August 6, 2012 Not for Circulation Demographic & Economic Profile 1. BERHelping Communities and Organizations Create Their Best Futures" STRATEGY ANALYSIS COMMUNICATIONS 19 [this page intentionally left blank] 20 CITY OF TUKWILA STRATEGIC PLAN Demographic & Economic Profile Review Draft August 6, 2012: Not for Circulation City of Tu STRAkwilaTEGIC ACTION PLAN Connecting to the Future ABOUT THIS DOCUMENT This is a review draft of the Tukwila Demographic & Economic Profile, designed to provide a summary level overview of defining demographic, economic, and market conditions that shape the City of Tukwila's current situation. The Profile relies primarily on quantitative information and absolutely must be augmented and rounded out by a more qualitative understanding of the community. The key findings from this document — plus the key findings from more qualitative ways of telling "the Tukwila story" — will be incorporated into a more comprehensive Summary Situation Assessment later in the planning process. This document should be considered a work in progress, with room for additional refinement. Most importantly, the information presented here should be considered for its implications for the Strategic Plan: what are the actionable goals and strategies that should be developed in the Plan to address opportunities and challenges identified in this document? :111 BERK ±1 22 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile CONTENTS About this Document 1 Demographic Overview 3 Population 4 Age 6 Community Composition 8 Race and Ethnicity 9 Foreign -born Population 12 Recent Immigrant and Refugee Resettlement Trends 14 Languages Spoken at Home 14 Income, Poverty, and Human Service Demands 16 Education 20 Public Health 23 Public Safety 23 Housing 24 Renter -Occupied Housing Units and Housing Tenure 24 Housing Affordability 26 Economic Overview 28 Land Value 29 Employment 30 Retail Sector 34 Office and Industrial Sectors 38 Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 2 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile uEiviuGRAPHIC Uvcr<VIEW This section presents Tukwila's key demographic indicators in context with a set of neighboring cities: Burien, Kent, Renton, and SeaTac. Where possible, figures for King County are included as an additional regional reference point. Summary of Key Findings. In general, South King County cities share some common characteristics in comparison to the rest of the County, including lower incomes, less educational attainment, and a higher percentage of minorities and foreign -born residents. Within South King County, Tukwila conforms to or leads this typology. Overall, Tukwila has a substantially lower population than the primary residential centers of South King County. Over the last ten years the City has seen an average annual residential growth rate that is much lower than larger South King cities of Burien, Renton, and Kent (although it is on par with the County overall). Tukwila skews somewhat younger than the County overall and most other South King cities as well, with more children per household. Tukwila has a much higher percentage of minorities, foreign -born residents, and non-English speakers than the County overall and, to a lesser extent, the other South King cities we examined. Tukwila has a much lower median household income and a much lower average educational attainment than the County overall and, to a lesser extent, the other King County cities other than SeaTac, which is similar to Tukwila with regard to education. Changes in demographic characteristics in recent years show that a portion of Tukwila's population has turned over in recent years. This is indicative of Tukwila's role in the region as being — along with other nearby communities — a home, temporarily or otherwise, for refugees, immigrants, and other populations. These demographic characteristics of the community both shape and are shaped by Tukwila's housing base, which is described at the end of this section. The City has a higher percentage of renters than the County overall and the other cities, although this percentage decreased between 1990 and 2010. The community experiences a significantly higher rate of turnover in its population. Compared to South King County overall, Tukwila housing is relatively affordable, particularly for purchasing a home. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 3 23 24 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Population Compared to the other South King cities, Tukwila has a low residential population. It is growing at a rate similar to the County overall, but significantly slower than the neighboring cities of Burien, Kent, and Renton. Exhibit 1 Total Population (including annexations) of Selected South King Cities, 1990 - 2011 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 - 20,000 - 0 41,688 37,960 11,874 50,052 31.881 Kent 118.200 Renton 92,590 47,_660 27,110 ♦ • 254'96 17.181 19,050 Burien SeaTac Tukwila 1990 2000 2011 Source: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2012; BERK, 2012 Note: Burien and SeaTac were incorporated as cities in the mid-1990s, so data for 1990 is not unavailable. Exhibit 2 Average Annual Growth Rate of Selected South King Cities (with annexations removed), 2000- 2011 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% Burien Kent Renton Tukwila SeaTac King County Source: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2012; BERK, 2012 Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 4 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile With just under 20,000 residents in 2011, Tukwila has a relatively small population compared to the other South King cities. Tukwila's average annual growth rate of 0.9% (with annexations removed) between 2000 and 2011 is slightly higher than the County average of 0.8%, but much lower than the South King cities of Burien (3.7%), Kent (3.6%), and Renton (3.1%). ► Similarly, while Tukwila's total population increased by 60% between 1990 and 2011, Kent's increased by over 210% and Renton's increased by over 120%. These figures include annexations, although in all cases the annexations do not account for the majority of the growth. Tukwila's "Daytime Population" In addition to its residential population captured by the figures and charts above, Tukwila is a regional destination for employees (see the Employment section beginning on page 30), shoppers, students, and other visitors. The City's estimates place Tukwila's daytime population between 150,000 and 170,000, including approximately 16 million shoppers a year to the Westfield Southcenter Mall alone. This population is 7 to 8 times the size of the City's residential population and has a tremendous impact on the City's economy and on demand for services, particularly police, fire, and emergency medical services. Annexations The City of Tukwila has annexed approximately 50 separate areas since 1948. A separate map showing the history of these additions to the City will be provided. The most recent annexations include Cascade View (1990), Oxbow (1993), and Tukwila South (2010). In addition, the City is currently in the process of two annexations that are likely to occur in the near future. Once these areas have been annexed, the City is not likely to see future annexations. ► The first potential annexation area is located on the northwest end of the City. This area includes approximately 135 acres, most of which is industrial/commercial land. The area has about 40 residents. Most of the area is already developed, except for about 30 acres of commercial/industrial property. ► The second potential annexation area is much smaller, with about 15 homes. It is currently entirely surrounded by the City. Traffic Counts The figures below show WSDOT's 2011 Average Daily Traffic counts for several major intersections in Tukwila: Tukwila International Boulevard and 170th Street (near SeaTac Airport): 24,000 vehicles Tukwila International Boulevard just South of 518 bridge: 30,000 vehicles 1-5 South of SR -518 Ramp (near Southcenter Mall): 202,000 vehicles Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 5 25 10% 67% 23% 10% 67% 23% 8% 68% 24% 9% 65% 26% 26 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Age Tukwila is a relatively young city. Overall, Tukwila's population skews somewhat younger; by percentage, there are more younger people and fewer older people than the County overall and most of the other King County cities we examined. In addition, the City has a relatively high average household size compared to the County overall, indicating that Tukwila families tend to have more children. Tukwila's median age is slightly below the County's, and in the middle of the examined South King Cities. Tukwila is younger now than it was in 1990. Exhibit 3 Percentage of Total Population by Age Categories in Selected South King Cities, 2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Median Age: 13% 65% 22% Burien 38.1 Renton SeaTac Kent 35.0 34.3 32.0 Source: US Census, 2010; BERK, 2012 11% 68% 21% Tukwila King County 33.6 37.0 ■ 65 and older ■ 18-64 0-17 Tukwila has a lower percentage of residents 65 years and older than the other South King cities, and is nearly 3% lower than the County average. Tukwila has a higher percentage of residents who are under 18 than all cities except Kent, and is nearly 3% higher than the County average. At 33.6, Tukwila's median age is nearly 3.5 years younger than the County overall, and the second youngest of the South King cities. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 6 24% 24% 8% 68% 8% 68% City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Exhibit 4 Tukwila and King County Age Distribution, 1990 -2010 TUKWILA T T KING COUNTY 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Source: US Census, 1990, 2000, 2010; BERK 2012 ■ 65 and older ■ 18-64 ■ 0-17 The number of residents under 18 years old in Tukwila increased from 19.0% to 24.2%, while the overall County percentage decreased from 22.6% to 21.4% during that time. In Tukwila, the increase occurred almost entirely between 1990 and 2000. The percentage of residents who are 65 and older in Tukwila decreased slightly, from 8.7% to 8.0%, between 1990 and 2010, while the overall County percentage decreased from 11.1% to 10.9%. Exhibit 5 Average Household Size in Selected South King Cities, 2006-2010 2.65 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.20 2.53 2.35 2 44 1 2.61 2.62 2.36 Burien Renton SeaTac Tukwila Kent King County Source: American Community Survey, 2006-2010 Tukwila has an average household size of 2.61, significantly higher than the County average of 2.36 and higher than all of the other South King cities besides Kent (which is 2.62). This is in line with the higher presence of children ages 0-17 as shown in Exhibit 3, above. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 7 27 28 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Community Composition This section describes Tukwila's community composition from four perspectives: Race & Ethnicity, Foreign -born Population, Recent Immigrant & Refugee Resettlement Trends, and Languages Spoken at Home. These attributes are related and there is significant overlap between them, but each is distinct and describes something different. The brief glossary below is included to clarify what these variables describe: Race & Ethnicity: In the US Census, respondents select the race or races with which they identify most closely. They also indicate whether or not they are of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, which is a different variable than race. Foreign -born Population: The foreign -born population variable (based on American Community Survey data) describes what percentage of residents were born outside of the United States, as well as where those residents were born. When reviewing this data, it is important to recognize that there are people who share characteristics with foreign -born residents (such as race/ethnicity or language spoken), but who were not actually born outside of the United States. Recent Immigrant & Refugee Resettlement Trends: To be added in a subsequent version. Language Spoken at Home: In the American Community survey, respondents describe the primary language they speak at home. When evaluating this data, it is important to consider that some residents who are classified as non-English speakers may actually know how to speak English, although they do not speak it regularly at home. Overall, the findings from this section indicate that Tukwila is a minority -majority city (meaning most residents are non-White), more than one-third of all residents were born outside the United States, and nearly half of all residents do not speak English as their primary language at home. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 8 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Race and Ethnicity Tukwila is a minority -majority city, meaning that most of its residents are not White. Tukwila has a much higher percentage of minorities than the County overall, and a higher percentage of minorities than all of the South King cities we examined (except with regard to Hispanic population, where it is in the middle compared to the other cities). Between 1990 and 2010, the Non -White population in Tukwila increased from 17.2% to 50.1% (excluding those who are "two or more races"), and grew at a much faster rate than the County overall. Exhibit 6 Percentage of Total Population by Race Category in selected South King Cities, 2010 Percentage of Total Population by Race Category, 2010 100% - 90% 80% 70% - 60% 50% 40% - 30% 20% - 10% - 0% 44% 6% 46% 6% 2% 12% 4% 17% 15% 56% 7% 1% 9% 2% 11% 15% 64% 6% 2% 12% 2% 6% 10% 69% 5% 1% 4% 1% 6% 15% Tukwila SeaTac Renton Kent Burien King County Source: US Census, 2010; BERK 2012 ■ White ■ Two or More Races American Indian or Alaska Native Some Other Race ■ Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ■ Black or African American Asian Tukwila's white residents make up only 43.9% of the City's total population, 25 % lower than the overall County percentage of 68.7%. Tukwila also has a lower percentage of white residents than the other South King cities. The most prominent minority groups in Tukwila are Asians (19%) and Black or African Americans (17.9%). Tukwila has a much higher percentage of Black or African Americans than the County average (6.2%) and a higher percentage than the other South King cities. Tukwila has a somewhat higher percentage of Asians (19%) than the County average (14.6%), and a higher percentage than the other South King cities except Renton. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 9 29 30 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 7 Tukwila and King County White/Non-White Population Distribution, 1990-2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% TUKWILA 7% 6% 44% 50% 1990 2000 2010 KING COUNTY 4% 76% 20% 1990 2000 2010 ■ Two or More Races ■ White ■ Non -White Source: US Census, 2010; BERK 2012 Note: Since the category "Two or More Races" was not measured in 1990 (all respondents were assigned to only one race), it is not possible to make a direct comparison between 1990 and 2000 & 2010 data, although 1990 data can be used as a proxy. The Tukwila non-white population grew dramatically between 1990 and 2010, from 17.2% to 50.1% (excluding those now classified as "two or more races"), while the County overall only grew from 15.2% to 26.3%. The percentage of non-white residents in Tukwila is now much higher than the County overall. Exhibit 8 Hispanic or Latino Population in selected South King Cities, 2010 25% 20% - 15% 10% - 5% - 0% 21% 20% 18% 17% 13% 9% 1 Burien SeaTac Tukwila Kent Renton King County Source: US Census, 2010; BERK, 2012 Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 10 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 9 Tukwila and King County Hispanic or Latino Population, 1990-2010 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1990 Source: US Census, 2010; BERK, 2012 2000 2010 unty The Hispanic or Latino population in Tukwila (17.5%) is substantially higher than the County overall (8.9%). It is in the middle compared to the other South King cities. Tukwila's Hispanic or Latino population increased substantially between 1990 and 2010, from 3.7% to 17.5%, with the majority of that increase occurring between 1990 and 2000. The County's overall Hispanic or Latino population increased at a slower rate during that time period, from 2.9% to 8.9%. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 11 31 14% 18% 1-u:w+la King C[ 9% 4% 5% 1990 Source: US Census, 2010; BERK, 2012 2000 2010 unty The Hispanic or Latino population in Tukwila (17.5%) is substantially higher than the County overall (8.9%). It is in the middle compared to the other South King cities. Tukwila's Hispanic or Latino population increased substantially between 1990 and 2010, from 3.7% to 17.5%, with the majority of that increase occurring between 1990 and 2000. The County's overall Hispanic or Latino population increased at a slower rate during that time period, from 2.9% to 8.9%. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 11 31 32 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Foreign -born Population Tukwila has an exceptionally high foreign -born population. With over a third of its residents born outside of the United States, Tukwila has a much higher foreign -born population percentage than the County overall, and a higher percentage than all of the other South King cities we examined. Between 1990 and 2010, Tukwila's foreign -born population increased from 7% to 36.2%, and grew at a much faster rate than the County overall. Asia is the dominant region of origin, followed by the Americas and Europe. Exhibit 10 Foreign -Born Population by Place of Birth in selected South King Cities, 2006-2010 40% — 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 36% of total is foreign -born 31% 26% 8% 11% 22% 2 2% 11% 7% 20% Tukwila SeaTac Renton Kent Burien King County Oceania Africa ■ Europe ■ Americas r Asia Source: American Community Survey, 2006-2010; BERK, 2012 Note: Numbers are based on 1-, 3-, or 5 -year ACS averages, depending on the jurisdiction. Note: Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Marshall Islands, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands. Note: The Americas include any country in North, Central, or South America, excluding the United States 36.2% of Tukwila residents are foreign -born, compared to 20.3% for the County overall. Tukwila has a higher percentage of foreign -born residents than all of the other cities. By local and national standards, Tukwila has a very high percentage of foreign -born residents. It has a similar percentage of foreign -born residents as New York City and San Francisco. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 12 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 11 Tukwila and King County Foreign -Born Population, 1990-2010 40% - 35% - 30% 25%- 20% 15% - 10%- 5% 0% 36% Tukwila 15% King County 20% 1990 2000 2010 Source: US Census, 1990, 2000; American Community Survey, 2006-2010; BERK, 2012 Note: The 2010 number is based on 1-, 3-, or 5 -year ACS averages, depending on the jurisdiction. Tukwila's foreign -born population increased dramatically between 1990 and 2010, from 7.0% to 36.2%, while the County's overall foreign -born population increased at a more moderate rate, from 9.3% to 20.3%. It is interesting to note that in 1990, Tukwila's foreign -born population was lower than the County average, while in 2010 it was nearly double. The majority of the increase in the percentage of foreign -born residents in Tukwila occurred between 1990 and 2000. Foreign -born Students in Tukwila Schools The following list provides estimates from the Tukwila School District of the top 10 countries of origin for immigrant students. They estimate there are a total of 626 foreign -born students in the school district: 1. Myanmar (102) 2. Nepal (96) 3. Mexico (57) 4. Somalia (54) 5. Russian Federation (49) 6. Thailand (36) 7. Kenya (34) 8. Philippines (24) 9. Vietnam (23) 10. Bhutan (21) Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 13 33 34 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Recent Immigrant and Refugee Resettlement Trends To be added in subsequent version. Languages Spoken at Home Tukwila has a high number of Non-English speakers. Nearly half of Tukwila's population does not speak English as their primary language at home. The City has a much higher percentage of people who do not speak English as their primary language at home than the County overall, and a higher percentage than the other South King cities we examined. Between 1990 and 2010, that segment of the population increased from 10% to 48%, and grew at a much faster rate than the County overall. Aside from English, the most common languages spoken in Tukwila are Spanish, Asian languages, and African languages. Exhibit 12 Primary Language Spoken at Home in Selected South King Cities, 2006-2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19% 9% 13% 52% 21% 54% 3" 10% 11% 13% 64% O 11% 6% 7% 75% Tukwila SeaTac Renton Kent Burien King County Other Languages Asian or Pacific Island Language ■ Other Indo-European Languages ■ Spanish or Spanish Creole ■ English Source: American Community Survey, 2006-2010; BERK, 2012 Note: Numbers are based on 1-, 3-, or 5 -year ACS averages, depending on the jurisdiction. Note: Asian and Pacific Island languages include Vietnamese, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Cambodian, Miao/Hmong, Thai, Laotian, and Tagalog Note: Indo-European languages include French, Italian, Portuguese, German, Yiddish, other West Germanic languages, Scandinavian languages, Greek, Russian, Polish, Serbo-Croatian, other Slavic languages, Armenian, Persian, Gujarathi, Hindi, and Urdu. Note: 'Other Languages" likely includes a number of African Languages for Tukwila. This Data is from 2006 to 2010. Although it is the most current data available, it is somewhat dated and does not show Tukwila's most recent immigrant and refugee resettlements, which have been predominantly East African, Burmese, and Nepalese. Tukwila has a much lower percentage of residents who speak English as their primary language at home (52%) than the County overall (74.5%), and has a lower percentage than the other South King cities. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 14 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Aside from English, Asian or Pacific Island languages are the most commonly spoken at home by Tukwila residents. ► Tukwila also has a relatively high number of residents who speak other Indo-European languages, but is in the middle amongst the King County cities for Spanish and Spanish Creole (although still much higher than the County average). Exhibit 13 Tukwila and King County Residents Speaking a Language Other than English at Home, 1990- 2010 60% 50% 40% 30% - 20% - 10% - 0% 48% Tukwila 10% 1990 2000 2010 Source: US Census, 1990, 2000; American Community Survey, 2006-2010; BERK, 2012 Note: The 2010 number is based on 1-, 3-, or 5 -year ACS averages, depending on the jurisdiction. The percentage of Tukwila residents speaking a language other than English at home increased dramatically between 1990 and 2010, from 10.1% to 48.0%. The overall percentage for the County increased at a more moderate rate during that time, from 11.0% to 25.5%. Language Spoken in Tukwila Schools There are over 70 languages spoken by students in the Tukwila School District. The top fifteen include: 1. English 2. Spanish 3. Vietnamese 4. Somali 5. Nepali 6. Bosnian 7. Cambodian 8. Turkish 9. Tagalog 10. Burmese 11. Karen 12. Russian 13. Samoan 14. Amharic 15. Chin 37% of students in the Tukwila School District qualify for English Language Learning (ELL) services. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 15 35 36 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Income, Poverty, and Human Service Demands Income Tukwila residents earn a relatively lower income. Tukwila has a much lower median household income than the County overall, and a lower median household income than nearby South King cities. The median household income in Tukwila has dropped over the last two decades. The City has a relatively high percentage of residents who earn under $25K and a relatively low percentage earning over $100K. Exhibit 14 - Median Household Income in Selected South King Cities, 2006-2010 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 IYICUIOII 11VU3CIIVIU 1111.V111C, GVWV- GVIV ‘GLI .1.1J tIVI I-MUJUJLCU IJVIIOI3i $o $62,949 $52,704 $51,440 $46,595 $44,271 $ 66,174 Renton Kent Burien SeaTac Tukwila King County Source: American Community Survey, 2006-2010 Exhibit 15 -Median Household Income (2010 inflation-adjusted dollars), 1990-2010 $30,000 $70,000 - $63,621 $60,000 $50,000 $69,233 $66,174 -• • Kkng County $53,003 $53,127 Tul:wII1 $40,000 - $44,271 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $o 1990 2000 2010 Source: US Census, 1990, 2000; American Community Survey, 2006-2010; BERK 2012 Note: The 2010 number is based on 1-, 3-, or 5 -year ACS averages, depending on the jurisdiction. At $44,271, Tukwila's median household income is much lower than the County average ($66,174), and is lower than the other King County cities. Between 1990 and 2010, Tukwila's inflation-adjusted median household income decreased from $53,003 to $44,271 (-16.4%), while the County's increased from $63,621 to $66,174 (+4.0%) Tukwila's inflation-adjusted median household income actually increased between 1990 and 2000, but saw a sharp drop between 2000 and 2010. Review Draft 8/6/12 - Not for Circulation 16 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 16 Income Distribution in Selected South King Cities (in 2010 Inflation -Adjusted Dollars), 2006-2010 5 -Year Average 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25% 17% 20% 24% 15% 20% 21% 27% 22% 19% 20% 25% 23% 16% 27% 26% 112% 31% 18% 20% 18% Renton Burien Kent SeaTac Tukwila King County Source: American Community Survey, 2006-2010; BERK, 2012 Over 100K 75K to 100K ■ 50K to 75K ■ 25K to 50K 1 Under25K At 12%, Tukwila has the lowest percentage of households earning over $100K compared to the other South King cities, and is far lower than the County's overall percentage of 31%. Tukwila has the highest percentage of household earning under $50K, and the second highest percentage of residents earning under $25K (after SeaTac). On both measures, Tukwila's percentages are far higher than the County average. Poverty Levels According to the 2005-09 American Community Survey, 23.1% of families and 24% of individuals in Tukwila are below the poverty line. This represents an almost 300% increase from the year 2000. About a third of Tukwila residents used Basic Food Program Services (also known as the Food Stamp Program) (2009-10 figures). ► 58% of people who use those services are children (ages 0 -17). About 9.5% receive Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), a welfare assistance program that provides cash assistance to needy families with dependent children, and to pregnant women. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 17 37 38 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Human Service Demands Tukwila's Office of Human Services provides information and referral services to residents and the community at -large, fielding more than 2,100 calls in 2011. The chart below shows annual requests received for assistance with housing and utility payments: 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Exhibit 17 Annual Calls for Housing and Utility Assistance N 00 Cl 0 1 N CO Cr 111 VD N. 00 Ql 0 —1 01 Ol al 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ol Ol Ol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 rl ri c1 N N N N N N N N N N N Source: Tukwila Office of Human Services, 2012; BERK, 2012 f Housing (annual) • Utilities (annual) Annual calls for housing and utility assistance steadily increased between 1997 and 2010, and then saw a dramatic spike in 2011. Between 2010 and 2011, annual calls for housing assistance increased by over 60%, while annual calls for utilities assistance increased by over 200%. In addition to housing and utility assistance, the Human Services Department contracts to non-profit organizations to deliver human services to Tukwila residents. Services are spread broadly to children, families, single adults, immigrants, refugees, and seniors, and include: Urgent and basic needs for food, shelter, medical and dental care, domestic violence and sexual assault services, homeless prevention and infant clothing; Senior meals and transportation assistance; Youth counseling, school based drug and alcohol services, and family support services; Adult literacy and ESL classes; Information and referral services. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 18 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile [this page intentionally left blank] Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 19 39 5% 11% 22% 35% 21% 5% 13% 25% 27% 21% 9% 21% 24% 26% 12% 40 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Education Tukwila residents have relatively low educational attainment. Nearly half of Tukwila's 25 and older population has, at most, a high school degree or equivalency as their highest educational attainment. Tukwila's 25 and older population has substantially lower educational attainment than the County as a whole, and somewhat lower educational attainment than the other South King cities we examined (except for SeaTac). In 2010, Tukwila's 25 and older population had lower educational attainment than it did in 1990, while the County overall had a substantially higher educational attainment. Between 1990 and 2000, the City has seen an increasing disparity between its least and most educated residents. In addition, 3 out of 4 students in Tukwila School District receive free or reduced lunches, an exceptionally high number compared to the State and the other school districts. Over one-third of students in Tukwila School District are transitional billingual, also an exceptionally high percentage compared to the State and other school districts. Tukwila School District has a relatively high extended graduation rate, but also a relatively high drop-out rate. Exhibit 18 Highest Educational Attainment for Population 25 and Older in Selected South King Cities, 2006-2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7% 18% 6% 18% 17% 29% 21% 18% 8% Renton Burien Kent Tukwila SeaTac King County Source: American Community Survey, 2006-2010; BERK, 2012 ■ Graduate Degree Bachelor's Degree Associate's Degree ■ Some College ■ HS Degree or Equivalency ■ No HS Degree Only 13.2% of Tukwila residents have a Bachelor's Degree and 4.7% have a Graduate Degree, which is far lower than the County averages of 28.7% and 16.6%, respectively. Tukwila is also the second lowest in these measure compared to the other South King cities. Among the other South King cities, Tukwila has the second highest percentage of residents (48.3%) who have at most obtained only a high school degree. Only SeaTac has less educated residents overall. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 20 11163 4.2% 1.3.3% 1313 13.2% 1 21.2% 26.6% L[ City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Exhibit 19 Tukwila and King County Highest Educational Attainment, 1990-2010 1unwna al u MII15 111511 L luu.auvnai r11.10nnnc111., 177V - LViV TUKWILA 1990 2000 2010 10.0 7.7% 24.9 22.8° 11.8 1990 KING COUNTY 28.7% 17.6% 8.0 % 2000 2010 Source: US Census, 1990, 2000; American Community Survey, 2006-2010; BERK 2012 Note: The 2010 number is based on 1-, 3-, or 5 -year ACS averages, depending on the jurisdiction. • Graduate Degree Bachelor's Degree Associate's Degree • Some College • HS Degree or equivalency • No HS Degree The discrepancy between Tukwila and the County's overall education level has increased substantially between 1990 and 2010. Between 1990 and 2010, Tukwila has seen an increasing disparity between its most and least educated residents. Between 1990 and 2010, the percentage of Tukwila residents with Bachelor's Degrees decreased from 15.5% to 13.2%, while the overall County percentage increased from 22.8. The percentage of Tukwila residents who have a graduate degree increased slightly, from 3.7% to 5.1%, but at a substantially slower pace than the County overall. Between 1990 and 2010, the percentage of Tukwila residents with no high school degree increased from 15.2% to 21.4%, while the overall County percentage decreased during that time. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 21 41 42 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 20 OSPI Statistics for South King and Seattle School Districts, 2009-2011 School Districts May 2011 Student Count Free or Reduced -Price Meals (May 2011) Transitional Bilingual (May 2011) Annual Dropout Rate (2009-10) Actual Adjusted 5 -year Cohort Extended Graduation Rate (Class of 20 3rd Grade Reading Measurements of Student Progress Results 4th Grade Math Measurements of Student Progress Results 5th Grade Science Measurements of Student Progress Results Source: Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction, 2011 Tukwila Highline Kent Renton Seattle WA State 2,833 17,824 27,132 14,371 47,808 1,035,535 76.3% 66.9% 49.7% 54.2% 43.3% 43.7% 36.8% 21.1% 16.5% 14.6% 12.2% 8.7% 7.0% 6.1% 4.4% 4.7% 4.5% 4.6% 77.9% 62.4% 70.5% 74.8% 77.6% 77.2% 61.0% 61.3% 67.1% 71.9% 78.6% 73.1% 48.2% 45.8% 57.2% 58.2% 64.6% 59.3% 52.7% 35.5% 44.3% 51.0% 63.7% 55.7% At 76.3%, Tukwila School District has an exceptionally high percentage of students who receive free or reduced price meals. In Washington State, the total is 43.7%, while the other school districts range from 43% to 67% At 36.8%, Tukwila also has a much higher percentage of students who are transitional bilingual than the State (8.7%) and nearby school districts (12% - 37%). In 2009, Tukwila had a higher extended graduation rate than the State and nearby school districts, but during 2009-2010 it also had a higher actual dropout rate (7.0%) than the State (4.6%) and nearby districts (4.5% - 6.1%). Review Draft 8/6/12 - Not for Circulation 22 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Public Health Indicators Nearly one in four adults in Tukwila/SeaTac between ages 18 and 64 have no health insurance, nearly one in six have unmet medical needs, and nearly one in six have self-reported general health that is poor or fair. In addition, 65% of adults in Tukwila/SeaTac are overweight or obese. All of these percentages are significantly higher than the County overall. However, Tukwila/SeaTac does have a lower percentage of residents (nearly one in fourteen) with frequent mental distress than the County overall. Exhibit 21 Tukwila Public Health Data, 2006-2010 5 -Year Average Tukwila/SeaTac Southeast King County King County Adults 18-64 with no health insurance (2006 -105 -year average) Adults with unmet medical needs (2006-10 5 -year average) Self-reported general health is poor or fair (2006-10 5 -year average) Percent overweight and obese (adults) (2006-10 5 -year average) Percent with frequent mental distress (2006-10 5 -year average) 24.0% 16.0% 15.0% 65.0% 7.0% 13.0% 13.0% 9.0% 10.0% 13.0% 10.0% 66.0% 56.0% 10.0% 8.0% Source: Seattle and King County Public Health, 2012 Note: KC Public Health combines data for Tukwila and SeaTac At 24%, Tukwila/SeaTac has a much higher percentage of adults 18-64 with no health insurance than the County overall and Southeast King County (both 13%). In addition, 16% of adults in Tukwila/SeaTac have unmet medical needs and 15% have a self- reported health condition of poor or fair. ► This is significantly higher than the County overall, which has 10% for both categories. 65% of adults in Tukwila/SeaTac are overweight or obese, significantly higher than the overall number for the County (56%), but similar to the rest of Southeast King County. Only 7% of adults in Tukwila/SeaTac have frequent mental distress, slightly lower than both King County overall and Southeast King County Public Safety Summary statistics to be added in a subsequent version. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 23 43 44 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Housing Exhibit 22 Tukwila and King County Percentage Renter -Occupied Housing Units, 1990-2010 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 61% 58% 57% f 4790 King County 41% 40% 1990 2000 2010 Source: US Census, 1990, 2000, 2010; BERK, 2012 At 56.6%, Tukwila has a higher percentage of renter -occupied household than the other South King cities, and is also higher than the County average (47.3%). Between 1990 and 2010, the percentage or renter -occupied households in Tukwila decreased from 60.7% to 56.6%, while the County overall increased from 41.2% to 47.3%. Renter -Occupied Housing Units and Housing Tenure Tukwila has a relatively high number of renter -occupied households, as well as a relatively high number of residents who moved during the previous year. At 56.6%, Tukwila has a higher percentage of renter - occupied households than the County overall and the other South King cities we examined. Between 1990 and 2010, the percentage of renter -occupied households in Tukwila decreased by 4 %, while the County overall increased by 6 %. The percentage of residents who moved in the previous year is significantly higher in Tukwila than the County overall. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 24 50% 47% 47% 45% City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 23 Tenure of Occupied Housing Units in selected South King Cities, 2010 50% - 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 46% Tukwila Kent SeaTac Renton Burien King County Source: US Census, 2010; BERK, 2012 Exhibit 24 Percentage of Residents Who Moved in the Previous Year in Selected South King Cities, 2006- 2010 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 23.4% 23.2% 21.0% 19.1% 18 7% 18.5% Kent Tukwila Renton Burien SeaTac King County Source: American Community Survey, 2006-2010 23.2% of Tukwila residents moved to a different house in the previous year, significantly higher than the overall County percentage of 18.5% and higher than all other South King Cities except for Kent (which is at 23.4%) Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 25 45 46 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Housing Affordability Compared to South King County overall, Tukwila housing is relatively affordable, particularly for purchasing a home. However, renting is far more affordable across income categories than purchasing a home. Just under half of Tukwila homes are affordable for residents earning at least the median household income, while less than a quarter of homes are affordable for residents earning less than 80% of the median household income. Nearly all Tukwila rental units are affordable for residents earning at least the median household income, while 63.2% of rental units are affordable for residents earning under 80% of the median household income. The data shown below is from 2007 and the situation may have changed considerably with the subsequent economic downturn. How to Read Exhibits 25 & 26 Exhibits 24 & 25 show the percentage of properties in Tukwila and other South King County cities that are considered affordable for purchase or rent, as determined by household income. A housing unit is deemed "affordable" if it means that no more than 25% of a homeowner's income goes to mortgage payments (exclusive of tax and insurance costs) or that no more than 30% of a renter's income goes to rent payments. The "Median" category refers to households that earn at least the median household income, "<80%" refers to residents who earn less than 80% of the median household income, and "<50%" refers to residents who earn less than 50% of the median household income. For example, per the chart below: 48.1% of the homes sold in 2007 were "affordable" to households that earned the median income for the City of Tukwila. Exhibit 25 Home Sales and Affordability by Income Category for Selected South King Cities, 2007 Jurisdiction Total %Affordable by Income Category # Median Cost Median <80% <50% Algona Milton Pacific Covington Black Diamond Maple Valley Normandy Park Des Moines Renton Kent SeaTac Burien Auburn Federal Way 34 7 100 319 80 497 87 499 1,275 1,348 414 402 543 1,312 $279,950 $298,000 $309,500 $324,000 $337,225 $360,000 $565,000 $261,090 $385,000 $319,950 $292,500 $340,000 $275,000 $289,975 32.4% 0.0% 18.0% 16.0% 11.3% 2.2% 8.0% 48.7% 20.9% 31.2% 30.7% 20.4% 40.5% 39.8% 5.9% 0.0% 6.0% 1.3% 2.5% 0.4% 3.4% 14.6% 11.8% 14.7% 9.4% 10.7% 16.4% 28.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% 3.1% Tukw ila 210 $269,500 48.1% 24.8% 4.8% South King County 7,127 $319,950 29.3% 14.5% 1.6% Source: King County Benchmarks, 2008-2009; BERK, 2012 Review Draft 8/6/12 - Not for Circulation 26 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 26 Rental Units and Affordability by Income Category for Selected South King Cities, 2007 Jurisdiction Total %Affordable by Income Category # Median Rent Median <80% <50% Pacific 1,061 $780 100.0% 79.4% 0.0% Covington 537 $1,050 95.1% 0.0% 0.0% Maple Valley 844 $1,200 87.3% 0.0% 0.0% Algona 180 $1,395 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% Renton 17,746 $900 89.8% 33.9% 7.6% Kent 18,424 $817 98.7% 55.7% 11.1% Federal Way 15,390 $845 98.4% 47.9% 13.6% Tukwila 4,582 $776 99.8% 63.2% 17.3% Burien 6,102 $727 98.9% 72.7% 18.9% Normandy Park 597 $780 98.1% 78.0% 21.5% Des Moines 4,627 $800 98.3% 59.8% 23.2% Auburn 11,096 $750 99.2% 71.9% 25.9% SeaTac 4,828 $733 99.9% 74.5% 36.5% Black Diamond 171 $660 100.0% 57.1% 57.1% Milton 133 NA NA NA NA South Feng County 86,318 $825 96.4% 51.1% 14.0% Source: King County Benchmarks, 2008-2009; BERK, 2012 Based on median home prices and household income categories, Tukwila is one of the more affordable jurisdictions in South King County for potential homeowners. However, much of Tukwila's housing is described as aging and in need of significant repair. Approximately 48 percent of Tukwila homes are affordable for residents earning at least the median household income (compared to only 30% for South King overall), 24.8% are affordable for residents earning less than 80% of the median household income (compared to only 14.5% for South King overall), and 4.8% are affordable for residents earning less than 50% of the median household income (compared to only 1.6% for South King overall). Based on median rental costs and household income categories, Tukwila is somewhat more affordable for potential renters than South King County overall. Approximately 99.8% percent of Tukwila rental units are affordable for residents earning at least the median household income (compared to 96.4% for the County overall), 63.2% of rental units are affordable for residents earning less than 80% of the median household income (compared to only 51.1%% for South King overall), and 17.3% of rental units are affordable for residents earning less than 50% of the median household income (compared to only 14.0% for South King overall). As with owner -occupied properties, many rental properties in Tukwila are described as aging and in need of significant repair. Review Draft 8/6/12 - Not for Circulation 27 47 48 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile ECONOMIC OVERVIEW This section evaluates Tukwila's overall employment composition, commute patterns, and jobs -housing balance. Tukwila's retail, office, and industrial sectors are then examined in more detail. Summary of Key Findings. Tukwila has a large employment base relative to its population. The largest employment sectors in the City include the Service, Manufacturing, and Retail sectors. All of these sectors have declined since 2008 with the economic recession. Tukwila's location between the Duwamish and Kent Valleys and at the intersection of 1-5 and 1-405 also make it a desirable location for industrial and warehouse development. Industrial and warehouse uses are a large source of jobs for the City. Office uses also have a significant presence in the city, but have not grown much recently. Tukwila is a regional retail center, but it faces growing competition from nearby cities and retail centers. The City is also challenged by a Targe decrease in retail spending since 2007 with the economic recession and slow recovery. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 28 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Land Value Exhibit 27 — Land Value per Square Foot 2006 and 2011 (Source: King County Assessor; BERK, 2012) Assessed Land Value/Square Foot $5.00 $5.01-$10.00 $10.01-$15.00 $15.01-$20.00 .�' $'20.01 -$3000 0 Assessed Land Value/Square Foot $5.00 $5.01 - $10.00 $10.01-$15.0D $15.01 - $20.00 • $20,01 - $30.00 ■ s$30.00 Land values in Tukwila area have increased over the last five years. Commercial areas and parcels along major transportation corridors have the highest land values. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 29 49 50 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Employment Tukwila is a large and diverse employment center for its geographic size and population. The City draws employees from throughout the region. However, employment has decreased overall and within almost all sectors since 2008. Employment is now at lower levels than at the start of the decade in 2000. Covered Employment Exhibit 28 Total Covered Employment in selected South King Cities, 2000-2010 70,000 - 60,000 50,000 - 40,000 - 30,000 - 20,000 - 10,000 - 0 00 0 01' 03 0 0 OHO 01 0 0 N. O'V ,y0 'V ,y0 'V 'V ,y0 ,y0 ,LO ,ti0 Kent Renton - Tukwila - SeaTac - Buren Source: Puget Sound Regional Council, 2012; BERK, 2012 Over the past decade, the total number of jobs in Tukwila has increased with growth and decreased with recessions taking place in the broader economy. Overall, Tukwila has 3,345 fewer jobs (a 0.7% decline) in 2010 than it did in 2000. The number of jobs in Tukwila decreased between 2000 and 2005, but then increased substantially between 2005 and 2008.However, since the start of the recession in 2008, the number of jobs has declined by 4,257, a trend also seen in the nearby cites of Kent, Renton, and SeaTac. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 30 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Jobs -Housing Ratio Exhibit 29 Jobs -Housing Balance in selected South King Cities, 2010 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Jobs -Housing Ratio 5.40 2.36 1.65 1 Tukwila SeaTac Kent 5.40 2.36 1.65 1.38 1.30 Renton 1.38 Burien King County 0.75 1.30 Jobs 2010 43,126 24,641 60,322 53,960 10,438 1,099,639 Housing Units 2010 7,989 10,448 36,469 39,146 14,002 845,265 Source: Puget Sound Regional Council, 2012; BERK, 2012 With 43,126 jobs in 2010, Tukwila is in the middle compared to the other South King cities that we examined. With 7,989 housing units in 2010, Tukwila has the fewest housing units of any of the cities. As a result, at 5.40, the jobs -housing ratio in Tukwila is much higher than the County average and the other South King cities that we examined. The next closest municipality is SeaTac, with a jobs -housing ratio of 2.36, while the County average is 1.30. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 31 51 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 30 Where People Who Work in Tukwila Live, 2009 Home Location Density High Low a 'r kJ R ,.``' ---;i1 `, u Lis • Redmond L Bainbridge : , Island r= ff Gle Bellevue 1ecleral \, Way S —4 Tacoma 2 4 Irks Source: US Census Local Employment Dynamics, 2009; BERK, 2012 52 Where People Who Live in Tukwila Work, 2009 Work Location Density High Low Bainbridge Island ire L.. Redmonct is Bellevue' RentoTr-4.7, Kent) iJ KING Federal Way Tacoma 2 4 L Employees who work in Tukwila live all throughout the central Puget Sound region. South and West Seattle, Renton, and Kent have the highest concentration of Tukwila employees. Residents of Tukwila work primarily in Tukwila and surrounding cities or in downtown Seattle and Bellevue. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 32 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Covered Employment Exhibit 31 Total Employment by Sector in Tukwila, 2000-2010 Tukwila Employment by Sector, 2000-2010 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 O ,O O,LO ,LO LO LO LO ,LO LO 'V Source: Puget Sound Regional Council, 2012; BERK, 2012 Education Government ■ WTU ■ Services • Retail • Manufacturing • FIRE ■ Const/Res Employment within Tukwila is distributed among a number of different sectors. Services composed the largest percentage of jobs in 2010 with 32% of all jobs. Manufacturing (25%); Retail (14%); and Warehousing, Transportation and Utilities (12%) also make up sizable shares of Tukwila's employment. The share of each sector relative to each other did not change significantly between 2000 and 2010. All sectors, with the exception of Construction, showed slight decreases. The Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) sector decreased the most with a 3.7% decrease. Retail and Manufacturing also saw decreases of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Exhibit 32 Businesses with More than 200 Full -Time Equivalent Positions, in Order of Size 1. The Boeing Company 2. Carlisle Interconnect 3. Boeing Employees Credit Union 4. Macys 5. Costco Optical 6. Red Dot Corp 7. Costco Wholesale 8. Nordstrom 9. American Medical Response 10. Hartung Glass & Cheesecake Factory 11. JC Penney Source: City of Tukwila, 2011 Note: As this data is collected for businesses only, comparable employment figures for non- profit and government employers, including Tukwila School District, King County Metro bus terminal, and Group Health Headquarters are not known. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 33 53 54 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Reta i I Sector Tukwila is a major retail center in the Seattle metropolitan area, both in terms of square footage and total retail sales. Retail sales within the city have varied over the last 15 years, but they dropped by a large amount with the onset of the economic recession starting in 2008. Retail sales have also not performed as well over time as compared to other cities with major retail centers in the region, such as Renton and Lynnwood, which saw steady gains in retail spending from 1994 up to 2007. Exhibit 33 Retail Square Footage in South King County, 2009 • "_ Bellevue • Miles j Federal , 1 way �e:w _ 6,. —l. ',. . i i -1i1 i Issaquaha Retail Square Feet • Up to 10,000 • 10,001 - 25,000 • 25,001 - 50,000 • 50,001 - 150,000 150,001 + 3 Market Pop: Electronics/Appliances Market Pop: Apparel/Accessories Source: King County Assessor, 2009; BERK, 2012 Tukwila had 4.85 million square feet of retail space in 2009. Southcenter Mall and the immediate surrounding area represent the large majority of the retail space in Tukwila. Southcenter Mall is also one of the largest clusters of retail space in southern King County, as seen on the map above. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 34 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 34 Total Inflation Adjusted Retail (NAICS 44-45) Taxable Retail Sales (2012$), 1994-2010 Taxable Retail Sales $1.50 $1.25 - $1.00 $0.75 $0.50 - $0.25 Alderwood Nordstroms Alderwood Addition of Terraces Southcenter Remodel Kent Station The nding Ikea $0.00 1 oy o0 \ of 0 00 oti oti '' of o`' o(o o� o% CP ti° do do do do do do 1, 4) ,yo ,yo 1 1.. ,yo do ,yo ,o ,o Source: Department of Revenue, 2012; BERK, 2012 Recession Lynnwood - Renton - Tukwila - Kent - Issaquah - Burien - SeaTac The chart shows taxable retail sales for NAICS codes 44 to 45 ("Retail Trade"). Sales in these categories were affected by the implementation of sales tax streamlining on July 1, 2008. According to DOR's website: "Under the new rules, if a retailer delivers or ships merchandise to a buyer in Washington State, the sales tax is collected based on the rate at the location where the buyer receives or takes possession of the merchandise. There is no change for deliveries outside the state or over-the- counter sales where customers take home goods from the store location." In 2010, taxable retail sales (TRS) within Tukwila were lower than anytime within the previous 15 years. The City experienced a large decline in retail sales between 2007 and 2010, with a decrease of over $324 million. In 2010, retail sales in Tukwila were nearly $300 million less than they were in 1994. Over the same period from 1994 to 2010, Renton and Kent (nearby competitors) and Issaquah (a comparable regional retail center) saw steady growth in retail sales up until 2007. Since 2007, Renton has experienced less of decline than Tukwila, while Kent has seen a large decrease of over $500 million. Tukwila's share of taxable retail sales for retail items in the surrounding area (Burien, Kent, Renton, Tukwila, and SeaTac) has decreased from a little more than 40% in 1994 to about 30% in 2010. Lynnwood (a comparable regional retail center north of Seattle) saw a similar pattern in retail sales as Tukwila, but experienced more growth leading up to the recession, which Tukwila did not have. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 35 55 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Taxable Retail Sales Exhibit 35 Total Inflation Adjusted Retail TRS in Tukwila (2012$), 1994-2010 $1,600,000,000 - $1,400,000,000 - $1,200,000,000 - $1,000,000,000 - $800,000,000 - $600,000,000 - $400,000,000 - $200,000,000 - $0 °°` oh 4° �'\ �0 0° o° oti oti o3 0°' 0`6 0° "ONS. do ,0 ti� ,0 ti� til do ,yo do ,yo ,yo '154)47194110‘ yo ,yo ,yo Source: Department of Revenue, 2012; BERK 2012 In addition to decreases in overall retail spending since 1994, most of the retail categories within the sector also saw decreased spending. • Nonstore Retailers • Miscellaneous Store Retailers • General Merchandise Stores • Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores • Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores • Gasoline Stations • Health and Personal Care Stores • Food and Beverage Stores • Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers • Electronics and Appliance Stores • Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores • Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers General Merchandise sales decreased the most, representing more than half of the overall decrease, with $227.4 million less in 2010 than 1994. Furniture and Home Furnishings had the second largest decrease in spending, with $88.4 million less in 2010 than 1994. The three categories that grew include Clothing, Sporting Goods and Miscellaneous Retailers. 56 Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 36 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile [this page intentionally left blank] Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 37 57 58 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Office and Industrial Sectors The office development sector in the Puget Sound region is competitive. Tukwila has not had an active office market over the last eight years, but it has shown some improvement as vacancies have decreased. South King County is a center for industrial and warehouse uses in the Puget Sound region, and Tukwila has a large amount of both of these types of uses. Exhibit 36 Office Square Footage in South King County, 2009 Office Square Feet • Up to 25,000 • 25,001 - 50,000 • 50,001 - 100.000 • 100,001 - 500,000 .500,001 + 1 .i l Irl�i ,J T.. • .-- Miles - `"• �'• Source: King County Assessor, 2009; BERK, 2012 Office space within Tukwila is concentrated in the north end of the city. The small dots on the south end of the City represent small-scale office space likely attached to warehouse and industrial buildings. Overall, there is a large amount of office space of all classes in the South King County region. Much of it is located in Renton and the Kent Valley. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 38 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 37 Industrial and Warehouse Square Footage in South King County, 2009 Building Square Feet 0 Upta 25,000 25,001 - 100,000 �.) 100,001 - 050,000 350.091 -750,000 In 750,001 Building Type • Industrial • warehouse • • • • • • .•- . • .•d • • !-i.,, • • 4.�• o •y 99 .'1 • r •ciird •%; :j. • `44 MI; es 410 • •• a° s 5 i• Fri \ • • i • •• • • • • •. Bglievue • d• • • • • • • • •-O•• •a • • •.• ••.ris:• • ••••-•.y • • • • • • r ` c� '.us• • yds• `�••• 'rl;+�:•+� y; b, • 0.7.14 ilUest- •«• • • • y1011t:. • Renton • ArAltiF O. :i=:tall rtei• 5 • • • •♦ • • • • • • •• ; J4 ••4 r • • ®f i Source: King County Assessor, 2009; BERK, 2012 South King County, including the Duwamish and Kent Valleys, is a center for industrial and warehouse uses within the Puget Sound region. Industrial buildings within Tukwila are larger and clustered in the north end of the City, by Boeing Field, rather than in the Duwamish Valley. Warehouse uses are more concentrated in the south end of Tukwila in the Kent Valley. Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 39 59 60 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile 35% 30% Exhibit 38 Office Vacancy Rates, 2003-2012 • •' -. •• • I 10% 5% 0% • • • • _, • I • • Tukwila Southend Average Downtown Seattle 1),* �� 0,, 0,3 4, �� co'ti O� '�, 'V cb, cb• O, �� 0*, 0*3 N.* N.' ,y, 00 00 00 . 00 . 00 . 00 . 00 00 . 00 . 00 . 00 . 00 . 00 . 00 . ON. ON. ON. .ON. .ON. . 1, 'V ti ti ti ti ti ti "I• 'V ti'V ti ti ti ti ti ti ti Year and Quarter Source: CBRE, 2012; BERK, 2012 The office market in Tukwila has not been very active over the last eight years. Since 2004, only 187,000 square feet of office space has been built. Vacant space has slowly decreased. At the start of 2004, Tukwila had over 600,000 square feet of vacant office space compared to a little over 300,000 in the first quarter of 2012. Vacancy rates in Tukwila (14.2% in the first quarter of 2012) are lower than the average for Southend cities (Auburn, Federal Way, Kent, Renton, SeaTac, and Tukwila). Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 40 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile $40.00 • $35.00 tn $30.00 u $25.00 N $20.00 u- • $15.00 $10.00 ▪ $5.00 $0.00 Exhibit 39 Class A' Full Service Office Rents, 2003-2012 • • • • • • 0 - • - - • •• Downtown Seattle Tukwila - - - - - Southend Average I I I I I f I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 31 3 R1 � �y h3 01 03 1 y '�� Oy �3 �i� 0� Oti O� yy ti3 til 00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00 ci . 00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .O4 .Oti . ON . ON .ON.N.V. 1'1ti ti ti'1'1ti'1ti ti'1'1'1"0 '12 ti '0 '12 Year and Quarter Source: CBRE, 2012; BERK, 2012 Rents in the Tukwila submarket are similar to the Southend overall, but they are quite a bit lower than Downtown Seattle, which has some of the highest office rents in the region. Rents have been relatively stable in the Tukwila submarket, even during the economic boom and following recession. This indicates that the Tukwila submarket does not track as closely to broader economic conditions as Downtown Seattle, for example, which saw a more dramatic increase and decrease in rents before and during the recession. 1 Class A office spaces have high quality finishes, state of the art systems, prime locations, and compete for premier office users. Review Draft 8/6/12 - Not for Circulation 41 61 62 City of Tukwila Strategic Planning Demographic & Economic Profile Exhibit 40 Industrial Market Statistics, 2012 (First Quarter) South King County Overall Market Existing Square Feet 111,212,614 313,164,665 Vacancy Rate 7.26% 6.69% Rents2 $0.36 $0.43 Source: Kidder Mathews, 2012; CBRE, 2012 South King County represents one-third of all industrial space within the Seattle industrial market (Snohomish to Thurston County). Vacancy rates in South King County submarket are relatively low at 7.26% and in line with the overall market. At $0.36 per square foot per month, rents for industrial space in South King County are relatively low. Only the Tacoma/Fife submarket has lower asking rents than South King County in the Puget Sound industrial market ($0.35 per square foot per month). 2 Asking triple net rents per square foot per month. Source: CBRE Review Draft 8/6/12 — Not for Circulation 42